CHW⇄TBR

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$1.6M net +1.0

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $25M expected surplus · +$16.0M realized received 2.7 ± 3 expected · 4.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2000 odds 58% → 56% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony Graffanino2B·28y·R/R

+$7.7M+$7.7M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$16.0M 2.7± 3 exp WARrealized 4.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.92/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net +$1.6M net -1.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · +$17.6M realized received 0.4 ± 1 expected · 3.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tanyon SturtzeP·29y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$17.6M 0.4± 1 exp WARrealized 3.7

Prior

#619 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.46 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.