OAK⇄TBR

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$17.6M net +4.6

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 2.0 ± 3 expected · 3.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2000 odds 35% → 41% (+5.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim MecirP·30y·B/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 3.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Todd BelitzP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#144 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net −$17.6M net -4.6

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $37M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 3.2 ± 5 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jesús ColoméP·22y·R/R

+$11.4M+$11.4M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 3.2± 5 exp WARrealized -1.0

Prior

Composite #53.0 prospect (Baseball America #53 (2000)) → 0.57/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.