TBR⇄HOU

TBRTBR Chuck Lamar net +$8.0M net +2.2

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $56M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 3.9 ± 7 expected · 2.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TBR's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Russ Johnson2B/3B·27y·R/R

+$13.0M+$13.0M± $56M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 3.9± 7 exp WARrealized 2.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.79/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net −$8.0M net -2.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 2000 odds 11% → 9% (-1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Marc ValdesP·28y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#27 overall draft pick → 0.34/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.