RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.07× league · TAB +9.1
+9.1TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+17.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-2.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
22%dead money %4th/30
0.617win %1st/30
44.1roster fWAR5th/30
+9surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$130Mpayroll $M9th/30

2015: made playoffs · 100–62. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFPeter Bourjos 93GJon Jay 54GRandal Grichuk 37G
LFMatt Holliday 64GStephen Piscotty 55GRandal Grichuk 49G
RFJason Heyward 144GBrandon Moss 82GStephen Piscotty 15G
SSJhonny Peralta 148GPete Kozma 31GGreg Garcia 12G
2BKolten Wong 147GPete Kozma 17GMatt Carpenter 11G
3BMatt Carpenter 146GMark Reynolds 22GPete Kozma 13G
1BMark Reynolds 100GMatt Adams 46GBrandon Moss 42G
STARTERSJohn Lackey 3.5WARCarlos Martinez 3.4WARLance Lynn 3.0WARJaime García 2.7WARMichael Wacha 2.4WAR
CYadier Molina 134GTony Cruz 51GEd Easley 3G
DHMatt Holliday 4GMark Reynolds 3GJhonny Peralta 2G
BULLPEN★ Trevor Rosenthal 48svKevin Siegrist 28hSeth Maness 20hJonathan Broxton 17hRandy Choate 8hMatt Belisle 7hSteve Cishek 6hCarlos Villanueva 1h
CYadier Molina 134 · Tony Cruz 51 · Ed Easley 3
1BMark Reynolds 100 · Matt Adams 46 · Brandon Moss 42
2BKolten Wong 147 · Pete Kozma 17 · Matt Carpenter 11
3BMatt Carpenter 146 · Mark Reynolds 22 · Pete Kozma 13
SSJhonny Peralta 148 · Pete Kozma 31 · Greg Garcia 12
LFMatt Holliday 64 · Stephen Piscotty 55 · Randal Grichuk 49
CFPeter Bourjos 93 · Jon Jay 54 · Randal Grichuk 37
RFJason Heyward 144 · Brandon Moss 82 · Stephen Piscotty 15
DHMatt Holliday 4 · Mark Reynolds 3 · Jhonny Peralta 2
SPJohn Lackey 3.5 · Carlos Martinez 3.4 · Lance Lynn 3.0 · Jaime García 2.7 · Michael Wacha 2.4
BP★ Trevor Rosenthal 48 · Kevin Siegrist 28 · Seth Maness 20 · Jonathan Broxton 17 · Randy Choate 8 · Matt Belisle 7 · Steve Cishek 6 · Carlos Villanueva 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2015 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jason Heyward 25 arb 1545.6 7.8 +9.7
Matt Carpenter 29 arb 1545.3 3.8 +12.9
John Lackey 36 FA-elig 333.5 0.5 +10.6
Carlos Martinez 23 pre-arb 323.4 0.5 +10.1
Lance Lynn 28 arb 313.0 7.0 +2.5
Randal Grichuk 23 pre-arb 1033.0 0.5 +8.9
Jaime García 28 FA-elig 202.7 9.2 -0.9
Kolten Wong 24 pre-arb 1502.5 0.5 +7.4
Michael Wacha 23 pre-arb 302.4 0.5 +7.1
Yadier Molina 32 FA-elig 1362.4 15.0 -7.5
Jhonny Peralta 33 FA-elig 1552.1 15.0 -8.5
Trevor Rosenthal 25 arb 682.0 0.5 +5.7
Tommy Pham 27 pre-arb 521.6 0.2 +4.8
Stephen Piscotty 24 – 631.4 0.2 +4.1
Kevin Siegrist 25 pre-arb 811.3 0.5 +3.6
Matt Holliday 35 FA-elig 730.9 17.0 -14.2
Adam Wainwright 33 FA-elig 70.7 19.5 -17.2
Brandon Moss↔ CLE 31 FA-elig 510.6 2.3 -0.2
Tim Cooney 24 pre-arb 60.6 0.1 +1.8
Miguel Socolovich 28 pre-arb 280.4 0.3 +0.9
Jordan Walden 27 arb 120.4 2.7 -1.5
Tyler Lyons 27 pre-arb 170.3 0.2 +0.7
Greg Garcia 25 pre-arb 490.3 0.2 +0.6
Seth Maness 26 pre-arb 770.2 0.5 +0.1
Randy Choate 39 FA-elig 710.1 3.0 -2.6
Jonathan Broxton↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 260.1 3.5 -3.2
Cody Stanley 26 pre-arb 90.1 0.1 +0.2
Matt Belisle 35 FA-elig 340.1 3.5 -3.2
Carlos Villanueva 31 FA-elig 350.1 2.0 -1.8
Sam Tuivailala 22 pre-arb 140.1 0.1 +0.0
Matt Adams 26 arb 600.0 0.5 -0.4
Travis Tartamella 27 – 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Nick Greenwood 27 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Marcus Hatley 27 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Dean Anna 28 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Mark Reynolds 31 FA-elig 140-0.1 2.0 -2.2
Marco Gonzales 23 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Steve Cishek↔ MIA 29 arb 27-0.1 3.0 -3.4
Xavier Scruggs 27 pre-arb 17-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Ed Easley 29 – 4-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Dan Johnson 35 arb 12-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Peter Bourjos 28 arb 117-0.2 1.6 -2.4
Jon Jay 30 arb 79-0.3 4.1 -5.0
Mitch Harris 29 pre-arb 26-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Pete Kozma 27 arb 76-0.5 0.5 -2.1
Tony Cruz 28 arb 69-0.7 0.8 -2.8

Key additions (new vs 2014)

PlayerfWAR
Jason Heyward5.6
Stephen Piscotty1.4
Brandon Moss0.6
Tim Cooney0.6
Miguel Socolovich0.4
Jordan Walden0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2014)

Player2014 fWAR
Pat Neshek2.0
Shelby Miller1.0
Joe Kelly0.4
Eric Fornataro0.0
Audry Pérez0.0
Keith Butler-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2015 payroll
$129.9M
2016 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2015, 2015–2021. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2015; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Adam Wainwright339.027$19.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Holliday3511.000$17.0MFREE AGENT
Jhonny Peralta3310.118$15.0MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina3210.123$15.0MFREE AGENT
Jaime García286.047$9.2MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Broxton319.020$3.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Belisle359.019$3.5MFREE AGENT
Randy Choate3910.073$3.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Reynolds317.138$2.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Villanueva318.030$2.0MFREE AGENT
John Lackey3612.095$507kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Jason Heyward255.000$7.8MFREE AGENT
Lance Lynn283.119$7.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Jay304.134$4.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter293.012$3.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Cishek293.143$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Walden274.043$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Moss314.160$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Bourjos284.062$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cruz283.105$775kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Johnson354.076$64kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2015201620172018201920202021
Trevor Rosenthal252.058$535kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Adams262.033$534kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Maness261.154$530kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Kozma271.108$522kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Wacha231.062$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Martinez231.073$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolten Wong241.045$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Siegrist251.116$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randal Grichuk230.061$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Socolovich281.085$311kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Piscotty240.000$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Lyons270.166$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Pham270.021$180kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Garcia250.043$177kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Tuivailala220.021$144kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ed Easley29–$136k
Cody Stanley260.038$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Harris290.117$94kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Cooney240.025$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Tartamella27–$36k
Marcus Hatley27–$22k
Dean Anna280.031$17kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Scruggs270.025$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Greenwood270.104$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales230.041$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2015; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.