RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.06× league · TAB -1.0
-1.0TAB — talent above budget18th/30
+7.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-6.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
29%dead money %10th/30
0.556win %5th/30
34.0roster fWAR15th/30
-20surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/30
$120Mpayroll $M11th/30

2014: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFPeter Bourjos 104GJon Jay 98GRandal Grichuk 5G
LFMatt Holliday 150GJon Jay 27GRandal Grichuk 5G
RFOscar Taveras 62GJon Jay 33GRandal Grichuk 28G
SSJhonny Peralta 152GDaniel Descalso 19GPete Kozma 8G
2BKolten Wong 107GMark Ellis 50GDaniel Descalso 21G
3BMatt Carpenter 156GDaniel Descalso 14GMark Ellis 3G
1BMatt Adams 133GXavier Scruggs 5GDaniel Descalso 4G
STARTERSAdam Wainwright 5.3WARLance Lynn 3.4WARMichael Wacha 1.6WARCarlos Martinez 1.4WARShelby Miller 1.0WAR
CYadier Molina 107GA.J. Pierzynski 87GTony Cruz 47G
DHMatt Holliday 6GYadier Molina 2GMatt Carpenter 1G
BULLPEN★ Trevor Rosenthal 45svPat Neshek 25hKevin Siegrist 16hSeth Maness 11hSam Freeman 11hRandy Choate 10hJason Motte 1hNick Greenwood 1h
CYadier Molina 107 · A.J. Pierzynski 87 · Tony Cruz 47
1BMatt Adams 133 · Xavier Scruggs 5 · Daniel Descalso 4
2BKolten Wong 107 · Mark Ellis 50 · Daniel Descalso 21
3BMatt Carpenter 156 · Daniel Descalso 14 · Mark Ellis 3
SSJhonny Peralta 152 · Daniel Descalso 19 · Pete Kozma 8
LFMatt Holliday 150 · Jon Jay 27 · Randal Grichuk 5
CFPeter Bourjos 104 · Jon Jay 98 · Randal Grichuk 5
RFOscar Taveras 62 · Jon Jay 33 · Randal Grichuk 28
DHMatt Holliday 6 · Yadier Molina 2 · Matt Carpenter 1
SPAdam Wainwright 5.3 · Lance Lynn 3.4 · Michael Wacha 1.6 · Carlos Martinez 1.4 · Shelby Miller 1.0
BP★ Trevor Rosenthal 45 · Pat Neshek 25 · Kevin Siegrist 16 · Seth Maness 11 · Sam Freeman 11 · Randy Choate 10 · Jason Motte 1 · Nick Greenwood 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Adam Wainwright 32 FA-elig 325.3 19.5 -3.9
Jhonny Peralta 32 FA-elig 1574.6 15.5 -2.0
Matt Carpenter 28 arb 1583.4 1.0 +9.0
Lance Lynn 27 arb 333.4 0.5 +9.4
Yadier Molina 31 FA-elig 1103.2 15.0 -5.5
Matt Holliday 34 FA-elig 1563.2 17.0 -7.6
Pat Neshek 33 FA-elig 712.0 1.0 +4.7
Kolten Wong 23 pre-arb 1131.8 0.5 +4.9
Matt Adams 25 pre-arb 1421.8 0.5 +4.7
Jon Jay 29 arb 1401.7 3.2 +1.7
Michael Wacha 22 pre-arb 191.6 0.5 +4.3
Carlos Martinez 22 pre-arb 571.4 0.5 +3.6
Peter Bourjos 27 arb 1191.2 1.2 +2.3
Trevor Rosenthal 24 pre-arb 721.2 0.5 +2.9
Shelby Miller 23 pre-arb 321.0 0.5 +2.5
Jaime García 27 FA-elig 80.6 7.8 -6.1
Seth Maness 25 pre-arb 730.6 0.5 +1.1
John Lackey↔ BOS 35 FA-elig 100.5 4.9 -3.6
Joe Kelly↔ BOS 26 pre-arb 70.4 0.2 +0.9
Randal Grichuk 22 – 470.3 0.3 +0.5
Pete Kozma 26 arb 140.3 0.5 +0.3
Tyler Lyons 26 pre-arb 110.3 0.3 +0.5
Marco Gonzales 22 – 100.2 0.1 +0.5
Randy Choate 38 FA-elig 610.2 3.0 -2.4
Eric Fornataro 26 – 80.0 – –
Audry Pérez 25 – 10.0 – –
Greg Garcia 24 – 140.0 0.1 -0.1
Keith Butler 25 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Jorge Rondon 26 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Sam Freeman 27 pre-arb 44-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Tommy Pham 26 – 6-0.0 0.1 -0.2
George Kottaras↔ CLE 31 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Joey Butler 28 – 6-0.1 – –
Daniel Descalso 27 arb 104-0.1 1.3 -1.6
Xavier Scruggs 26 – 9-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Kevin Siegrist 24 pre-arb 37-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Nick Greenwood 26 – 19-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Sam Tuivailala 21 – 2-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Justin Masterson↔ CLE 29 FA-elig 9-0.3 3.1 -4.1
Shane Robinson 29 arb 47-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Mark Ellis 37 FA-elig 73-0.4 5.2 -6.5
A.J. Pierzynski↔ BOS 37 FA-elig 30-0.5 2.4 -3.9
Allen Craig↔ BOS 29 arb 97-0.6 2.1 -3.8
Jason Motte 32 FA-elig 29-0.6 7.5 -9.3
Oscar Taveras 22 – 80-0.9 0.5 -3.1
Tony Cruz 27 arb 50-1.3 0.5 -4.3

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Jhonny Peralta4.6
Pat Neshek2.0
Peter Bourjos1.2
John Lackey0.5
Randal Grichuk0.3
Marco Gonzales0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Carlos Beltrán2.7
David Freese0.5
John Axford0.2
John Gast0.0
Edward Mujica0.0
Jermaine Curtis0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$119.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Adam Wainwright328.027$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M$2.0M$5.0M
Matt Holliday3410.000$17.0M$17.0M$17.0MFREE AGENT
Jhonny Peralta329.118$15.5M$15.0M$12.5M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina319.123$15.0M$15.0M$14.0M$14.0M$20.0M$20.0M$20.0M
Mark Ellis3711.136$5.2MFREE AGENT
John Lackey3511.095$4.9M$507kFREE AGENT
Randy Choate389.073$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
A.J. Pierzynski3713.100$2.4MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Jaime García275.047$7.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Motte325.027$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jon Jay293.134$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Masterson295.108$3.1MFREE AGENT
Allen Craig293.077$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Descalso273.016$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Bourjos273.062$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Neshek335.159$1.0MFREE AGENT
George Kottaras314.149$16kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Matt Carpenter282.012$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Lynn272.119$535kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Rosenthal241.058$521kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cruz272.105$521kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shelby Miller231.030$521kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Robinson292.030$519kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Kozma261.060$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Adams251.033$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Wacha220.062$510kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Maness250.154$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Martinez220.073$505kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Siegrist240.116$505kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oscar Taveras22–$500k
Keith Butler251.000$500kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolten Wong230.045$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Freeman270.104$366kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randal Grichuk220.000$305kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Greenwood260.000$290kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Lyons260.070$260kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Kelly261.060$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Garcia240.000$117kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Gonzales220.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Scruggs260.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Tuivailala210.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Pham260.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Rondon260.061$27kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Audry Pérez25–—
Joey Butler280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Fornataro260.032—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.