STL⇄SEA

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Ty Kelly2B/3B/OF·26y·B/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#386 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Sam GaviglioP·25y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#170 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.