RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.9× league · TAB +9.8
+9.8TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+16.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
32%dead money %15th/30
0.599win %1st/30
42.8roster fWAR6th/30
+21surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$94Mpayroll $M13th/30

2013: won pennant · 97–65. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJon Jay 152GShane Robinson 27G
LFMatt Holliday 136GShane Robinson 26GAllen Craig 25G
RFCarlos Beltrán 137GShane Robinson 34GAllen Craig 22G
SSPete Kozma 139GDaniel Descalso 55GRyan Jackson 1G
2BMatt Carpenter 132GDaniel Descalso 39GKolten Wong 18G
3BDavid Freese 132GMatt Carpenter 42GDaniel Descalso 38G
1BAllen Craig 95GMatt Adams 74GTy Wigginton 7G
STARTERSAdam Wainwright 6.6WARLance Lynn 3.1WARShelby Miller 1.9WARMichael Wacha 1.1WARJoe Kelly 0.6WAR
CYadier Molina 131GTony Cruz 44GRob Johnson 15G
DHMatt Holliday 4GCarlos Beltrán 3GDavid Freese 2G
BULLPEN★ Edward Mujica 37svTrevor Rosenthal 29hJohn Axford 19hSeth Maness 15hRandy Choate 15hKevin Siegrist 11hCarlos Martinez 3hFernando Salas 2h
CYadier Molina 131 · Tony Cruz 44 · Rob Johnson 15
1BAllen Craig 95 · Matt Adams 74 · Ty Wigginton 7
2BMatt Carpenter 132 · Daniel Descalso 39 · Kolten Wong 18
3BDavid Freese 132 · Matt Carpenter 42 · Daniel Descalso 38
SSPete Kozma 139 · Daniel Descalso 55 · Ryan Jackson 1
LFMatt Holliday 136 · Shane Robinson 26 · Allen Craig 25
CFJon Jay 152 · Shane Robinson 27
RFCarlos Beltrán 137 · Shane Robinson 34 · Allen Craig 22
DHMatt Holliday 4 · Carlos Beltrán 3 · David Freese 2
SPAdam Wainwright 6.6 · Lance Lynn 3.1 · Shelby Miller 1.9 · Michael Wacha 1.1 · Joe Kelly 0.6
BP★ Edward Mujica 37 · Trevor Rosenthal 29 · John Axford 19 · Seth Maness 15 · Randy Choate 15 · Kevin Siegrist 11 · Carlos Martinez 3 · Fernando Salas 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Matt Carpenter 27 pre-arb 1577.2 0.5 +18.8
Yadier Molina 30 FA-elig 1367.2 14.0 +5.2
Adam Wainwright 31 FA-elig 356.6 12.0 +5.6
Matt Holliday 33 FA-elig 1414.0 17.0 -6.4
Lance Lynn 26 pre-arb 333.1 0.5 +7.7
Carlos Beltrán 36 FA-elig 1452.7 13.0 -5.8
Allen Craig 28 arb 1342.5 1.8 +5.0
Trevor Rosenthal 23 pre-arb 742.1 0.5 +5.3
Shelby Miller 22 pre-arb 311.9 0.5 +4.7
Jon Jay 28 arb 1571.8 0.5 +4.2
Matt Adams 24 pre-arb 1081.6 0.5 +3.8
Michael Wacha 21 – 151.1 0.2 +2.8
Shane Robinson 28 arb 990.8 0.5 +1.6
Kevin Siegrist 23 – 450.7 0.3 +1.5
Joe Kelly 25 pre-arb 400.6 0.5 +1.0
Randy Choate 37 FA-elig 640.5 1.5 -0.0
David Freese 30 arb 1380.5 3.1 -1.9
Tyler Lyons 25 – 120.4 0.2 +0.9
Pete Kozma 25 pre-arb 1430.3 0.5 +0.3
Carlos Martinez 21 – 210.3 0.2 +0.5
Jaime García 26 arb 90.3 5.8 -5.1
John Axford↔ MIL 30 arb 130.2 0.9 -0.3
Seth Maness 24 – 660.2 0.4 +0.1
Jake Westbrook 35 FA-elig 210.2 8.8 -8.3
Sam Freeman 26 pre-arb 130.1 0.1 +0.2
Keith Butler 24 – 160.1 0.1 +0.1
Daniel Descalso 26 arb 1230.1 0.5 -0.3
John Gast 24 – 30.0 0.4 -0.3
Edward Mujica 29 FA-elig 650.0 3.2 -3.1
Jermaine Curtis 25 pre-arb 50.0 0.0 -0.0
Fernando Salas 28 arb 270.0 0.5 -0.5
Audry Pérez 24 – 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Marc Rzepczynski↔ CLE 27 arb 11-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Victor Marte 32 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Maikel Cleto 24 – 1-0.1 – –
Ryan Jackson 25 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Michael Blazek↔ MIL 24 – 11-0.3 0.1 -0.8
Kolten Wong 22 – 32-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Rob Johnson 30 arb 20-0.4 0.1 -1.1
Adron Chambers 26 pre-arb 25-0.4 0.1 -1.2
Tony Cruz 26 pre-arb 51-0.5 0.5 -1.7
Brock Peterson 29 – 23-0.5 0.1 -1.4
Ty Wigginton 35 FA-elig 47-0.6 2.5 -4.0
Mitchell Boggs↔ COL 29 arb 18-0.7 1.0 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Michael Wacha1.1
Kevin Siegrist0.7
Randy Choate0.5
Tyler Lyons0.4
Carlos Martinez0.3
John Axford0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Kyle Lohse3.0
Skip Schumaker0.8
Chris Carpenter0.1
Lance Berkman0.1
C.J. Fick-0.0
Bryan Anderson-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$93.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Matt Holliday339.000$17.0M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina308.123$14.0M$15.0M$15.0M$14.0M$14.0M$20.0M$20.0M
Carlos Beltrán3614.014$13.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Wainwright317.027$12.0M$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M$2.0M
Jake Westbrook3512.144$8.8MFREE AGENT
Ty Wigginton3511.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Randy Choate378.073$1.5M$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Jaime García264.047$5.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Edward Mujica295.115$3.2MFREE AGENT
David Freese303.028$3.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitchell Boggs293.125$983kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski273.036$318kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Johnson303.007$145kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Allen Craig282.077$1.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Axford302.170$867kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Jay282.134$524kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Lynn261.119$513kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Salas282.087$512kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Descalso262.016$511kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter271.012$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cruz261.105$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Robinson281.030$498kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Kelly250.116$493kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Jackson250.118$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Adams240.033$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Kozma250.060$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shelby Miller220.030$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Rosenthal230.058$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Maness240.000$415kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Gast24–$372k
Kevin Siegrist230.000$311kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Martinez210.000$195kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Lyons250.000$187kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Wacha210.000$166kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Butler240.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adron Chambers260.089$126kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kolten Wong220.000$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Peterson29–$118k
Sam Freeman260.063$112kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Audry Pérez24–$75k
Michael Blazek240.000$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jermaine Curtis250.012$32kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Marte321.062$24kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Maikel Cleto240.169—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.