RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 1.19× league · TAB +8.2
+8.2TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+3.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-3.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
29%dead money %10th/30
0.543win %11th/30
44.6roster fWAR4th/30
-4surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$119Mpayroll $M10th/30

2012: made playoffs · 88–74. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJon Jay 116GShane Robinson 37GSkip Schumaker 15G
LFMatt Holliday 152GShane Robinson 15GAdron Chambers 10G
RFCarlos Beltrán 132GAllen Craig 23GMatt Carpenter 15G
SSRafael Furcal 120GDaniel Descalso 26GPete Kozma 25G
2BDaniel Descalso 96GSkip Schumaker 61GRyan Jackson 8G
3BDavid Freese 134GMatt Carpenter 33GDaniel Descalso 22G
1BAllen Craig 91GMatt Carpenter 44GMatt Adams 24G
STARTERSAdam Wainwright 4.0WARJaime García 3.2WARKyle Lohse 3.0WARLance Lynn 2.2WARJake Westbrook 2.0WAR
CYadier Molina 136GTony Cruz 47GBryan Anderson 2G
DHCarlos Beltrán 3GMatt Holliday 2GAllen Craig 1G
BULLPEN★ Jason Motte 42svMitchell Boggs 34hEdward Mujica 30hMarc Rzepczynski 18hVictor Marte 9hFernando Salas 7hBrian Fuentes 3hSam Freeman 2h
CYadier Molina 136 · Tony Cruz 47 · Bryan Anderson 2
1BAllen Craig 91 · Matt Carpenter 44 · Matt Adams 24
2BDaniel Descalso 96 · Skip Schumaker 61 · Ryan Jackson 8
3BDavid Freese 134 · Matt Carpenter 33 · Daniel Descalso 22
SSRafael Furcal 120 · Daniel Descalso 26 · Pete Kozma 25
LFMatt Holliday 152 · Shane Robinson 15 · Adron Chambers 10
CFJon Jay 116 · Shane Robinson 37 · Skip Schumaker 15
RFCarlos Beltrán 132 · Allen Craig 23 · Matt Carpenter 15
DHCarlos Beltrán 3 · Matt Holliday 2 · Allen Craig 1
SPAdam Wainwright 4.0 · Jaime García 3.2 · Kyle Lohse 3.0 · Lance Lynn 2.2 · Jake Westbrook 2.0
BP★ Jason Motte 42 · Mitchell Boggs 34 · Edward Mujica 30 · Marc Rzepczynski 18 · Victor Marte 9 · Fernando Salas 7 · Brian Fuentes 3 · Sam Freeman 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Yadier Molina 29 FA-elig 1387.5 7.0 +12.3
Matt Holliday 32 FA-elig 1574.6 17.0 -5.1
Adam Wainwright 30 FA-elig 334.0 9.0 +1.2
David Freese 29 arb 1443.7 0.5 +9.2
Carlos Beltrán 35 FA-elig 1513.4 13.0 -4.3
Jaime García 25 arb 203.2 3.2 +5.0
Kyle Lohse 33 FA-elig 343.0 11.9 -4.0
Jon Jay 27 pre-arb 1172.9 0.5 +6.9
Allen Craig 27 pre-arb 1192.3 0.5 +5.4
Lance Lynn 25 pre-arb 352.2 0.5 +5.3
Jake Westbrook 34 FA-elig 302.0 8.5 -3.3
Matt Carpenter 26 pre-arb 1141.5 0.5 +3.4
Pete Kozma 24 pre-arb 261.1 0.5 +2.3
Jason Motte 30 arb 670.9 1.9 +0.4
Skip Schumaker 32 FA-elig 1070.8 1.5 +0.5
Joe Kelly 24 – 290.8 0.3 +1.7
Rafael Furcal 34 FA-elig 1210.7 6.0 -4.2
Shelby Miller 21 – 60.6 0.5 +1.1
Edward Mujica↔ MIA 28 FA-elig 290.6 0.7 +0.9
Mitchell Boggs 28 arb 780.6 0.5 +1.0
Shane Robinson 27 arb 1020.5 0.5 +0.9
Fernando Salas 27 pre-arb 650.3 0.5 +0.3
Trevor Rosenthal 22 – 190.2 0.2 +0.4
Chris Carpenter 37 FA-elig 30.1 10.5 -10.1
Lance Berkman 36 FA-elig 320.1 12.0 -11.7
Tony Cruz 25 pre-arb 510.0 0.5 -0.4
C.J. Fick↔ HOU 26 – 2-0.0 – –
Sam Freeman 25 – 24-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Bryan Anderson 25 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Adron Chambers 25 pre-arb 41-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Steven Hill 27 – 9-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Daniel Descalso 25 pre-arb 143-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Barret Browning 27 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Brandon Dickson 27 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Erik Komatsu↔ MIN 24 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Tyler Greene↔ HOU 28 arb 77-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Brian Fuentes↔ OAK 36 FA-elig 6-0.1 0.9 -1.3
Kyle McClellan 28 arb 16-0.2 2.5 -3.0
Ryan Jackson 24 pre-arb 13-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Maikel Cleto 23 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.5 -1.1
J.C. Romero↔ BAL 36 FA-elig 11-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Victor Marte 31 pre-arb 48-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Eduardo Sanchez 23 pre-arb 17-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Matt Adams 23 – 27-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Marc Rzepczynski 26 arb 70-0.6 0.5 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Adam Wainwright4.0
Carlos Beltrán3.4
Joe Kelly0.8
Shelby Miller0.6
Edward Mujica0.6
Trevor Rosenthal0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Albert Pujols3.9
Nick Punto1.7
Colby Rasmus1.0
Edwin Jackson0.9
Ryan Theriot0.2
Raul Valdes0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$118.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Matt Holliday328.000$17.0M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Beltrán3513.014$13.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Lance Berkman3612.052$12.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse3310.092$11.9MFREE AGENT
Chris Carpenter3715.000$10.5MFREE AGENT
Adam Wainwright306.027$9.0M$12.0M$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M$19.5M
Jake Westbrook3412.144$8.5M$8.8MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina297.123$7.0M$14.0M$15.0M$15.0M$14.0M$14.0M$20.0M
Rafael Furcal3412.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Fuentes369.125$938kFREE AGENT
J.C. Romero3611.014$516kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Jaime García253.047$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle McClellan284.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Motte303.027$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Skip Schumaker325.051$1.5MFREE AGENT
Edward Mujica284.115$673kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
David Freese292.028$508kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitchell Boggs282.125$506kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski262.036$504kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Jay271.134$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Salas271.087$498kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Descalso251.016$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Craig271.077$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Lynn250.119$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cruz250.105$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Anderson250.171$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Barret Browning270.055$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Robinson270.014$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter260.012$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Sanchez231.047$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Marte310.092$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Jackson240.118$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adron Chambers250.023$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Freeman250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Hill27–$480k
Brandon Dickson270.036$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shelby Miller210.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Kozma240.026$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Maikel Cleto230.169$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Adams230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Greene281.097$321kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Kelly240.000$304kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Komatsu240.000$240kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Rosenthal220.000$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
C.J. Fick26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.