STL⇄LAD

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$7.2M net +0.9

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2013 odds 53% → 58% (+5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake LemmermanSS·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#172 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$7.2M net -0.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2013 odds 80% → 77% (-3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Skip Schumaker2B/OF·33y·L/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.