RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.17× league · TAB +5.0
+5.0TAB — talent above budget9th/30
+7.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
39%dead money %15th/30
0.562win %7th/30
41.2roster fWAR8th/30
-7surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$107Mpayroll $M9th/30

2009: made playoffs · 91–71. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFColby Rasmus 124GRick Ankiel 66GSkip Schumaker 6G
LFMatt Holliday 155GChris Duncan 68GSkip Schumaker 39G
RFRyan Ludwick 133GRick Ankiel 27GSkip Schumaker 11G
SSBrendan Ryan 105GJulio Lugo 56GTyler Greene 30G
2BSkip Schumaker 133GJoe Thurston 47GJulio Lugo 30G
3BMark DeRosa 105GJoe Thurston 68GBrian Barden 46G
1BAlbert Pujols 159GMark DeRosa 10GYadier Molina 6G
STARTERSAdam Wainwright 5.7WARChris Carpenter 5.5WARJoel Pineiro 4.4WARKyle Lohse 1.0WARJohn Smoltz 1.0WAR
CYadier Molina 138GJason LaRue 43GMatt Pagnozzi 5G
DHChris Duncan 4GAlbert Pujols 1GNick Stavinoha 1G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Franklin 38svDennys Reyes 18hKyle McClellan 16hTrever Miller 15hJason Motte 15hBlake Hawksworth 2hJosh Kinney 2hP.J. Walters 0h
CYadier Molina 138 · Jason LaRue 43 · Matt Pagnozzi 5
1BAlbert Pujols 159 · Mark DeRosa 10 · Yadier Molina 6
2BSkip Schumaker 133 · Joe Thurston 47 · Julio Lugo 30
3BMark DeRosa 105 · Joe Thurston 68 · Brian Barden 46
SSBrendan Ryan 105 · Julio Lugo 56 · Tyler Greene 30
LFMatt Holliday 155 · Chris Duncan 68 · Skip Schumaker 39
CFColby Rasmus 124 · Rick Ankiel 66 · Skip Schumaker 6
RFRyan Ludwick 133 · Rick Ankiel 27 · Skip Schumaker 11
DHChris Duncan 4 · Albert Pujols 1 · Nick Stavinoha 1
SPAdam Wainwright 5.7 · Chris Carpenter 5.5 · Joel Pineiro 4.4 · Kyle Lohse 1.0 · John Smoltz 1.0
BP★ Ryan Franklin 38 · Dennys Reyes 18 · Kyle McClellan 16 · Trever Miller 15 · Jason Motte 15 · Blake Hawksworth 2 · Josh Kinney 2 · P.J. Walters 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Albert Pujols 29 FA-elig 1608.4 14.4 +5.5
Adam Wainwright 27 arb 405.7 2.8 +10.9
Chris Carpenter 34 FA-elig 285.5 13.3 -0.2
Yadier Molina 26 arb 1404.6 3.3 +7.6
Joel Pineiro 30 FA-elig 334.4 7.5 +3.0
Colby Rasmus 22 pre-arb 1472.7 0.4 +5.9
Brendan Ryan 27 pre-arb 1292.6 0.4 +5.9
Matt Holliday↔ OAK 29 arb 632.5 5.5 +0.6
Ryan Ludwick 30 FA-elig 1392.3 3.7 +1.7
Skip Schumaker 29 arb 1531.5 0.4 +3.2
John Smoltz↔ BOS 42 FA-elig 71.0 2.6 -0.1
Kyle Lohse 30 FA-elig 231.0 7.4 -5.1
Ryan Franklin 36 FA-elig 620.8 2.5 -0.6
Mitchell Boggs 25 pre-arb 160.5 0.4 +0.8
Trever Miller 36 FA-elig 700.5 0.5 +0.7
Mark DeRosa↔ CLE 34 FA-elig 680.5 2.7 -1.6
Julio Lugo↔ BOS 33 FA-elig 510.2 5.4 -4.8
Jason LaRue 35 FA-elig 510.2 0.9 -0.4
Jarrett Hoffpauir 26 pre-arb 80.2 0.4 +0.1
Kyle McClellan 25 pre-arb 660.2 0.4 -0.0
David Freese 26 pre-arb 170.2 0.4 -0.0
Brian Barden 28 pre-arb 520.1 0.4 -0.1
Rick Ankiel 29 FA-elig 1220.1 2.8 -2.5
Dennys Reyes 32 FA-elig 750.1 1.0 -0.7
Blake Hawksworth 26 pre-arb 300.1 0.4 -0.2
Blaine Boyer↔ ARI 27 arb 150.0 0.1 -0.1
Matt Pagnozzi 26 – 6-0.0 – –
Jess Todd↔ CLE 23 – 1-0.1 – –
Chris Perez↔ CLE 23 pre-arb 29-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Clayton Mortensen↔ OAK 24 – 1-0.1 – –
Brad Thompson 27 arb 32-0.1 0.7 -0.9
Shane Robinson 24 – 11-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Tyler Greene 25 pre-arb 48-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Joe Thurston 29 FA-elig 124-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Todd Wellemeyer 30 FA-elig 30-0.3 4.0 -4.7
Jason Motte 27 pre-arb 69-0.3 0.4 -1.2
Troy Glaus 32 FA-elig 14-0.3 12.1 -13.0
Josh Kinney 30 arb 17-0.4 0.4 -1.3
P.J. Walters 24 – 8-0.4 – –
Chris Duncan 28 arb 87-0.4 0.8 -1.9
Nick Stavinoha 27 pre-arb 39-0.6 0.4 -1.9
Khalil Greene 29 FA-elig 77-1.0 6.5 -8.8

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Colby Rasmus2.7
Matt Holliday2.5
John Smoltz1.0
Trever Miller0.5
Mark DeRosa0.5
Julio Lugo0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Braden Looper2.3
Felipe Lopez1.7
Aaron Miles1.6
Adam Kennedy1.4
Cesar Izturis1.0
Brian Barton0.9

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$106.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Albert Pujols298.000$14.4M$14.6M$14.5MFREE AGENT
Chris Carpenter3412.000$13.3M$15.8M$14.3M$10.5MFREE AGENT
Troy Glaus3211.000$12.1MFREE AGENT
Joel Pineiro309.000$7.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse308.000$7.4M$9.2M$12.2M$11.9MFREE AGENT
Khalil Greene296.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Julio Lugo339.000$5.4MFREE AGENT
Todd Wellemeyer306.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick307.000$3.7M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Rick Ankiel2910.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Mark DeRosa3411.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
John Smoltz4221.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Ryan Franklin3610.000$2.5M$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Dennys Reyes3212.000$1.0M$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jason LaRue3510.000$950k$950kFREE AGENT
Trever Miller3613.000$500k$2.0M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Joe Thurston297.000$475kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Matt Holliday295.000$5.5MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina265.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Adam Wainwright274.000$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Duncan284.000$825kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Thompson274.000$650kARB 3FREE AGENT
Skip Schumaker294.000$430kARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Kinney303.000$405kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blaine Boyer274.000$135kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Kyle McClellan251.000$411kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Ryan272.000$403kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrett Hoffpauir260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Motte271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Robinson240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Barden282.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Greene250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Hawksworth260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Stavinoha271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Freese260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitchell Boggs251.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Perez231.000$191kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Pagnozzi26–—
Clayton Mortensen240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
P.J. Walters240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jess Todd23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.