RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: John Mozeliak

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.15× league · TAB +0.1
+0.1TAB — talent above budget16th/30
+2.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
31%dead money %15th/30
0.531win %12th/30
36.1roster fWAR15th/30
-21surplus $M (value vs cost)16th/30
$105Mpayroll $M10th/30

Roster

CFColby Rasmus 134GJon Jay 27GJoe Mather 14G
LFMatt Holliday 155GRandy Winn 25GJon Jay 9G
RFJon Jay 61GRandy Winn 46GAllen Craig 30G
SSBrendan Ryan 139GTyler Greene 22GAaron Miles 6G
2BSkip Schumaker 123GAaron Miles 50GTyler Greene 15G
3BPedro Feliz 102GDavid Freese 66GTyler Greene 11G
1BAlbert Pujols 157GYadier Molina 7GAllen Craig 5G
STARTERSAdam Wainwright 5.5WARChris Carpenter 2.6WARJaime García 2.5WARBrad Penny 1.0WARJake Westbrook 1.0WAR
CYadier Molina 135GJason LaRue 28GMatt Pagnozzi 15G
DHNick Stavinoha 2GMatt Holliday 1GRyan Ludwick 1G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Franklin 27svKyle McClellan 19hJason Motte 12hTrever Miller 11hDennys Reyes 6hMitchell Boggs 6hFernando Salas 1hMike MacDougal 0h
CYadier Molina 135 · Jason LaRue 28 · Matt Pagnozzi 15
1BAlbert Pujols 157 · Yadier Molina 7 · Allen Craig 5
2BSkip Schumaker 123 · Aaron Miles 50 · Tyler Greene 15
3BPedro Feliz 102 · David Freese 66 · Tyler Greene 11
SSBrendan Ryan 139 · Tyler Greene 22 · Aaron Miles 6
LFMatt Holliday 155 · Randy Winn 25 · Jon Jay 9
CFColby Rasmus 134 · Jon Jay 27 · Joe Mather 14
RFJon Jay 61 · Randy Winn 46 · Allen Craig 30
DHNick Stavinoha 2 · Matt Holliday 1 · Ryan Ludwick 1
SPAdam Wainwright 5.5 · Chris Carpenter 2.6 · Jaime García 2.5 · Brad Penny 1.0 · Jake Westbrook 1.0
BP★ Ryan Franklin 27 · Kyle McClellan 19 · Jason Motte 12 · Trever Miller 11 · Dennys Reyes 6 · Mitchell Boggs 6 · Fernando Salas 1 · Mike MacDougal 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Albert Pujols 30 FA-elig 1596.8 14.6 +1.4
Matt Holliday 30 FA-elig 1586.2 16.3 -1.7
Adam Wainwright 28 arb 375.5 4.8 +8.0
Yadier Molina 27 FA-elig 1364.4 4.3 +6.0
Colby Rasmus 23 pre-arb 1444.0 0.4 +8.9
Chris Carpenter 35 FA-elig 352.6 15.8 -9.6
Jaime García 23 pre-arb 312.5 0.4 +5.5
Ryan Ludwick↔ SDP 31 FA-elig 772.0 3.1 +1.6
Brendan Ryan 28 arb 1391.2 0.4 +2.3
David Freese 27 pre-arb 701.1 0.4 +2.3
Jon Jay 25 – 1051.1 0.4 +2.2
Jake Westbrook↔ CLE 32 FA-elig 121.0 4.0 -1.6
Brad Penny 32 FA-elig 91.0 7.5 -5.2
Jason Motte 28 pre-arb 560.4 0.4 +0.6
Daniel Descalso 23 – 110.4 0.4 +0.6
Matt Pagnozzi 27 – 150.3 – –
Kyle Lohse 31 FA-elig 210.3 9.2 -8.6
Tyler Greene 26 – 440.2 – –
Ryan Franklin 37 FA-elig 590.1 3.0 -2.7
Jeff Suppan↔ MIL 35 FA-elig 150.1 6.4 -6.1
Steven Hill 25 – 10.1 – –
Trever Miller 37 FA-elig 570.1 2.0 -1.8
Aaron Miles 33 – 790.1 – –
Jason LaRue 36 FA-elig 290.0 0.9 -0.9
Mark Hamilton 25 – 9-0.0 – –
Fernando Salas 25 – 27-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Mitchell Boggs 26 pre-arb 61-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Mike MacDougal 33 – 17-0.1 – –
P.J. Walters 25 – 7-0.1 – –
Allen Craig 25 pre-arb 44-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Bryan Anderson 23 – 15-0.1 – –
Felipe Lopez↔ BOS 30 FA-elig 109-0.2 1.0 -1.3
Kyle McClellan 26 pre-arb 68-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Evan MacLane 27 – 2-0.2 – –
Dennys Reyes 33 FA-elig 59-0.2 2.0 -2.6
Adam Ottavino 24 – 6-0.4 0.2 -1.1
Nick Stavinoha 28 pre-arb 79-0.4 0.4 -1.5
Randy Winn↔ NYY 36 FA-elig 87-0.5 0.8 -1.9
Pedro Feliz↔ HOU 35 FA-elig 40-0.5 1.3 -2.6
Skip Schumaker 30 arb 137-0.6 2.0 -3.4
Joe Mather 27 pre-arb 36-0.8 0.4 -2.3
Blake Hawksworth 27 pre-arb 45-1.0 0.4 -2.8

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Jaime García2.5
Jon Jay1.1
Jake Westbrook1.0
Brad Penny1.0
Daniel Descalso0.4
Jeff Suppan0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Joel Pineiro4.4
John Smoltz1.0
Mark DeRosa0.5
Julio Lugo0.2
Jarrett Hoffpauir0.2
Brian Barden0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$105.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Matt Holliday306.000$16.3M$16.3M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0M$17.0M
Chris Carpenter3513.000$15.8M$14.3M$10.5MFREE AGENT
Albert Pujols309.000$14.6M$14.5MFREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse319.000$9.2M$12.2M$11.9MFREE AGENT
Brad Penny3210.000$7.5MFREE AGENT
Jeff Suppan3515.000$6.4MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina276.000$4.3M$5.3M$7.0M$14.0M$15.0M$15.0M$14.0M
Jake Westbrook3210.000$4.0M$8.0M$8.5M$8.8MFREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick318.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Ryan Franklin3711.000$3.0M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Trever Miller3714.000$2.0M$1.6MFREE AGENT
Dennys Reyes3313.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Pedro Feliz3510.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez309.000$965kFREE AGENT
Jason LaRue3611.000$950kFREE AGENT
Randy Winn3612.000$825kFREE AGENT
Mike MacDougal339.000—FREE AGENT
Aaron Miles337.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (3)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Adam Wainwright285.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Skip Schumaker305.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Brendan Ryan283.000$425kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Kyle McClellan262.000$425kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus231.000$418kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Motte282.000$411kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Hawksworth271.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitchell Boggs262.000$402kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Jay250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Stavinoha282.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaime García232.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Mather272.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Salas250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Craig250.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Freese271.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Descalso230.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Ottavino240.000$188kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Pagnozzi27–—
Evan MacLane27–—
Mark Hamilton250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Anderson230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Greene261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
P.J. Walters250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Hill25–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.