STL⇄ATL

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2009 odds 48% → 49% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Blaine BoyerP·27y·R/R

+$0.1M+$0.1M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Frank Wren net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $50M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 3.3 ± 6 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2009 odds 51% → 51% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian BartonOF·27y·R/R

+$17.2M+$17.2M± $50M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 3.3± 6 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

Composite #86.0 pedigree (Baseball America #86 (2007)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.