RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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GM: Dal Maxvill

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.25× league · TAB -7.3
-7.3TAB — talent above budget20th/26
-8.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/26
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/26
-4.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/26
25%dead money %8th/26
0.469win %19th/26
29.6roster fWAR18th/26
-5surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/26
$15Mpayroll $M5th/26

Roster

CFWillie McGee 135GVince Coleman 23GJosé Oquendo 4G
LFVince Coleman 127GCurt Ford 24GDenny Walling 11G
RFTom Brunansky 155GCurt Ford 13GJosé Oquendo 9G
SSOzzie Smith 150GJosé Oquendo 17GTim Jones 9G
2BLuis Alicea 91GJosé Oquendo 69GTim Jones 8G
3BTerry Pendleton 101GDenny Walling 56GJosé Oquendo 47G
1BBob Horner 57GPedro Guerrero 52GMike Laga 37G
STARTERSJose DeLeon 3.7WARJoe Magrane 3.2WARScott Terry 2.0WARLarry McWilliams 0.9WARDanny Cox 0.8WAR
CTony Peña Sr. 142GTom Pagnozzi 28GSteve Lake 19G
BULLPEN★ Todd Worrell 32svKen Dayley 0hDan Quisenberry 0hSteve Peters 0hJohn Costello 0hScott Arnold 0hKen Hill 0hGibson Alba 0h
CTony Peña Sr. 142 · Tom Pagnozzi 28 · Steve Lake 19
1BBob Horner 57 · Pedro Guerrero 52 · Mike Laga 37
2BLuis Alicea 91 · José Oquendo 69 · Tim Jones 8
3BTerry Pendleton 101 · Denny Walling 56 · José Oquendo 47
SSOzzie Smith 150 · José Oquendo 17 · Tim Jones 9
LFVince Coleman 127 · Curt Ford 24 · Denny Walling 11
CFWillie McGee 135 · Vince Coleman 23 · José Oquendo 4
RFTom Brunansky 155 · Curt Ford 13 · José Oquendo 9
SPJose DeLeon 3.7 · Joe Magrane 3.2 · Scott Terry 2.0 · Larry McWilliams 0.9 · Danny Cox 0.8
BP★ Todd Worrell 32 · Ken Dayley 0 · Dan Quisenberry 0 · Steve Peters 0 · John Costello 0 · Scott Arnold 0 · Ken Hill 0 · Gibson Alba 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1988 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ozzie Smith 33 FA-elig 1535.8 2.3 -0.5
Jose DeLeon 27 arb 353.7 0.4 +0.8
Joe Magrane 23 pre-arb 253.2 0.1 +0.9
John Tudor↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 232.3 0.8 -0.1
Tony Peña Sr. 31 FA-elig 1492.3 1.1 -0.4
José Oquendo 24 arb 1482.3 0.3 +0.4
Scott Terry 28 pre-arb 512.0 0.1 +0.6
Tom Brunansky↔ MIN 27 FA-elig 1432.0 1.0 -0.4
Willie McGee 29 FA-elig 1371.9 1.2 -0.6
Terry Pendleton 27 arb 1101.7 0.7 -0.1
Larry McWilliams 34 FA-elig 450.9 0.1 +0.2
Todd Worrell 28 arb 680.8 0.2 +0.0
Ken Dayley 29 FA-elig 540.8 0.6 -0.4
Danny Cox 28 arb 130.8 0.8 -0.5
Cris Carpenter 23 – 80.7 – –
Pedro Guerrero↔ LAD 32 FA-elig 440.6 0.7 -0.5
Vince Coleman 26 arb 1530.5 0.7 -0.5
Bob Forsch↔ HOU 38 FA-elig 310.4 0.3 -0.2
Steve Lake 31 arb 360.4 0.2 -0.1
Greg Mathews 26 pre-arb 130.3 0.1 -0.0
Tim Jones 25 pre-arb 310.2 0.1 +0.0
Tom Lawless 31 FA-elig 540.2 0.1 -0.1
Scott Arnold 25 – 60.1 – –
Rod Booker 29 pre-arb 180.1 0.1 -0.0
Tom Pagnozzi 25 pre-arb 810.1 0.1 -0.0
Bob Horner 30 FA-elig 600.1 0.9 -0.9
Ken Hill 22 pre-arb 40.1 0.1 -0.0
Tom Herr↔ MIN 32 FA-elig 150.1 0.1 -0.1
Dan Quisenberry↔ KCR 35 FA-elig 330.0 1.0 -1.0
Gibson Alba 28 – 30.0 – –
John Costello 27 pre-arb 360.0 0.1 -0.1
Duane Walker 31 – 24-0.1 – –
John Morris 27 pre-arb 20-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Jim Lindeman 26 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.1 -0.2
Curt Ford 27 arb 91-0.3 0.1 -0.2
Randy O'Neal 27 – 10-0.3 – –
Mike Fitzgerald 24 – 13-0.4 – –
Denny Walling↔ HOU 34 FA-elig 19-0.5 0.1 -0.3
Luis Alicea 22 – 93-0.8 – –
Steve Peters 25 – 44-1.0 – –
Mike Laga 28 FA-elig 41-1.2 0.1 -0.5

Key additions (new vs 1987)

PlayerfWAR
Jose DeLeon3.7
Tom Brunansky2.0
Larry McWilliams0.9
Cris Carpenter0.7
Pedro Guerrero0.6
Tim Jones0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1987)

Player1987 fWAR
Jack Clark5.7
Lee Tunnell0.8
Tim Conroy0.4
Tito Landrum0.1
David Green0.1
Skeeter Barnes-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1988 payroll
$14.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 1988, 1988–1994. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Ozzie Smith3310.000$2.3M$2.2M$2.0M$2.2M$2.0M$3.0M$3.0M
Willie McGee296.000$1.2M$1.4M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Tony Peña Sr.318.000$1.1M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Tom Brunansky277.000$1.0M$1.2M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Dan Quisenberry359.000$973k$62kFREE AGENT
Bob Horner3010.000$950kFREE AGENT
John Tudor349.000$791kFREE AGENT$350k
Pedro Guerrero3210.000$735k$1.8M$2.1M$2.3M$2.4MFREE AGENT
Ken Dayley296.000$610k$925k$925kFREE AGENT
Bob Forsch3814.000$335kFREE AGENT
Denny Walling3413.000$130k$615k$500kFREE AGENT
Tom Herr329.000$130kFREE AGENT
Tom Lawless316.000$125kFREE AGENT
Mike Laga286.000$100kFREE AGENT
Larry McWilliams3410.000$62kFREE AGENT
Duane Walker316.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Danny Cox285.000$750kFREE AGENT
Vince Coleman263.000$700kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry Pendleton274.000$660kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose DeLeon275.000$375kFREE AGENT
José Oquendo245.000$275kFREE AGENT
Steve Lake315.000$240kFREE AGENT
Todd Worrell283.000$200kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curt Ford273.000$100kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy O'Neal274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Greg Mathews262.000$125kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Magrane231.000$100kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Morris272.000$75kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Lindeman262.000$75kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Terry282.000$75kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Pagnozzi251.000$72kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rod Booker291.000$70kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Jones250.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Hill220.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Costello270.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gibson Alba28–—
Luis Alicea220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Arnold25–—
Cris Carpenter230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fitzgerald24–—
Steve Peters251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 1988; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.