RRosternomics

Cardinals STL

GM: Dal Maxvill

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.13× league · TAB +10.4
+10.4TAB — talent above budget1st/26
+2.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/26
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/26
-1.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/26
28%dead money %12th/26
0.531win %10th/26
46.1roster fWAR1st/26
+1surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/26
$15Mpayroll $M10th/26

Roster

CFMilt Thompson 123GWillie McGee 47GJohn Morris 11G
LFVince Coleman 142GMilt Thompson 23GJohn Morris 10G
RFTom Brunansky 155GJohn Morris 32GMilt Thompson 3G
SSOzzie Smith 153GTim Jones 12GJosé Oquendo 7G
2BJosé Oquendo 156GTim Jones 12GRod Booker 5G
3BTerry Pendleton 161GDenny Walling 9GTim Jones 5G
1BPedro Guerrero 160GJim Lindeman 42GDenny Walling 20G
STARTERSJoe Magrane 4.8WARJose DeLeon 4.2WARKen Hill 1.8WARScott Terry 1.3WARTed Power 0.9WAR
CTony Peña Sr. 134GTom Pagnozzi 38GTodd Zeile 23G
BULLPEN Todd Worrell 20svKen Dayley 0hFrank DiPino 0hDan Quisenberry 0hJohn Costello 0hMatt Kinzer 0hBob Tewksbury 0h
CTony Peña Sr. 134 · Tom Pagnozzi 38 · Todd Zeile 23
1BPedro Guerrero 160 · Jim Lindeman 42 · Denny Walling 20
2BJosé Oquendo 156 · Tim Jones 12 · Rod Booker 5
3BTerry Pendleton 161 · Denny Walling 9 · Tim Jones 5
SSOzzie Smith 153 · Tim Jones 12 · José Oquendo 7
LFVince Coleman 142 · Milt Thompson 23 · John Morris 10
CFMilt Thompson 123 · Willie McGee 47 · John Morris 11
RFTom Brunansky 155 · John Morris 32 · Milt Thompson 3
SPJoe Magrane 4.8 · Jose DeLeon 4.2 · Ken Hill 1.8 · Scott Terry 1.3 · Ted Power 0.9
BP Todd Worrell 20 · Ken Dayley 0 · Frank DiPino 0 · Dan Quisenberry 0 · John Costello 0 · Matt Kinzer 0 · Bob Tewksbury 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1989 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ozzie Smith 34 FA-elig 1556.7 2.2 +0.2
José Oquendo 25 FA-elig 1635.7 0.5 +1.5
Joe Magrane 24 pre-arb 384.8 0.3 +1.4
Milt Thompson 30 arb 1554.5 0.5 +1.1
Terry Pendleton 28 arb 1624.3 0.7 +0.8
Jose DeLeon 28 FA-elig 364.2 0.7 +0.8
Pedro Guerrero 33 FA-elig 1623.1 1.8 -0.7
Tom Brunansky 28 FA-elig 1582.4 1.2 -0.4
Vince Coleman 27 arb 1452.1 0.8 -0.0
Tony Peña Sr. 32 FA-elig 1411.8 1.2 -0.6
Ken Hill 23 pre-arb 331.8 0.1 +0.6
Scott Terry 29 arb 351.3 0.1 +0.4
Dan Quisenberry 36 FA-elig 630.9 0.1 +0.3
Ted Power 34 FA-elig 230.9 0.1 +0.2
Denny Walling 35 FA-elig 690.8 0.6 -0.3
Ricky Horton↔ LAD 29 arb 110.6 0.0 +0.2
Cris Carpenter 24 360.5
Ken Dayley 30 FA-elig 710.4 0.9 -0.8
Frank DiPino 32 FA-elig 670.4 0.5 -0.3
Tim Jones 26 pre-arb 420.4 0.1 +0.1
Don Heinkel 29 pre-arb 70.4 0.1 +0.0
Bob Tewksbury 28 70.2
John Costello 28 pre-arb 480.1 0.1 -0.1
Todd Worrell 29 arb 470.0 0.9 -0.9
Todd Zeile 23 pre-arb 28-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Rod Booker 30 10-0.0
John Morris 28 arb 96-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Craig Wilson 24 6-0.1
Willie McGee 30 FA-elig 58-0.1 1.4 -1.4
Matt Kinzer 26 8-0.3
Leon Durham 31 FA-elig 29-0.3 0.2 -0.3
Jim Lindeman 27 73-0.3
Tom Pagnozzi 26 pre-arb 52-0.8 0.1 -0.4

Key additions (new vs 1988)

PlayerfWAR
Milt Thompson4.5
Ted Power0.9
Ricky Horton0.6
Frank DiPino0.4
Don Heinkel0.4
Bob Tewksbury0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1988)

Player1988 fWAR
John Tudor2.3
Larry McWilliams0.9
Danny Cox0.8
Bob Forsch0.4
Steve Lake0.4
Greg Mathews0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

1989 payroll
$15.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 1989, 1989–1995. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
Ozzie Smith3411.000$2.2M$2.0M$2.2M$2.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M
Pedro Guerrero3311.000$1.8M$2.1M$2.3M$2.4MFREE AGENT
Willie McGee307.000$1.4M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Tom Brunansky288.000$1.2M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Tony Peña Sr.329.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Ken Dayley307.000$925k$925kFREE AGENT
Jose DeLeon286.000$662k$1.7M$2.4M$2.2MFREE AGENT
Denny Walling3514.000$615k$500kFREE AGENT
José Oquendo256.000$525k$575k$775k$2.0M$2.0M$2.1M$2.2M
Frank DiPino328.000$452k$650kFREE AGENT
Leon Durham319.000$175kFREE AGENT
Ted Power348.000$150kFREE AGENT
Dan Quisenberry3610.000$62kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
Todd Worrell294.000$875kARB 3FREE AGENT
Vince Coleman274.000$775kARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry Pendleton285.000$710kFREE AGENT
Milt Thompson305.000$505kFREE AGENT
Scott Terry293.000$105kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Morris283.000$95kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Horton295.000$22kFREE AGENT
Jim Lindeman273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bob Tewksbury283.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (11)

PlayerAgeSvc1989199019911992199319941995
Joe Magrane242.000$320kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Pagnozzi262.000$90kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Costello281.000$85kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Don Heinkel291.000$85kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ken Hill231.000$70kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Jones261.000$70kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Zeile230.000$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rod Booker302.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cris Carpenter241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kinzer26
Craig Wilson240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 1989; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3