STL⇄MIN

STLSTL Dal Maxvill net −$8.8M net +2.9

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $30M expected surplus · −$16.0M realized received 4.0 ± 4 expected · 4.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1988 odds 5% → 6% (+1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom BrunanskyOF·27y·R/R

+$20.3M+$20.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$16.0M 4.0± 4 exp WARrealized 4.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.34/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net +$8.8M net -2.9

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 3.3 ± 3 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1988 odds 59% → 54% (-5.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tom Herr2B·32y·B/R

+$9.9M+$9.9M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 3.3± 3 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.28/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.