RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jack Zduriencik

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.74× league · TAB -3.2
-3.2TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-3.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)19th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-6.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
40%dead money %22nd/30
0.463win %20th/30
27.3roster fWAR21st/30
-3surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$74Mpayroll $M23rd/30

Roster

CFMichael Saunders 113GFranklin Gutierrez 38GCasper Wells 11G
LFCasper Wells 52GTrayvon Robinson 46GEric Thames 44G
RFEric Thames 35GCasper Wells 25GCarlos Peguero 11G
SSBrendan Ryan 138GMunenori Kawasaki 38GCarlos Triunfel 7G
2BDustin Ackley 142GKyle Seager 18GMunenori Kawasaki 10G
3BKyle Seager 138GAlex Liddi 23GChone Figgins 10G
1BJustin Smoak 131GMike Carp 23GDustin Ackley 11G
STARTERSFélix Hernández 6.7WARKevin Millwood 2.6WARJason Vargas 1.7WARErasmo Ramírez 1.1WARHisashi Iwakuma 0.9WAR
CMiguel Olivo 73GJesus Montero 56GJohn Jaso 43G
DHJesus Montero 78GJohn Jaso 46GMiguel Olivo 12G
BULLPEN★ Tom Wilhelmsen 29svLucas Luetge 12hJosh Kinney 9hCharlie Furbush 6hShawn Kelley 6hOliver Pérez 5hStephen Pryor 5hCarter Capps 2h
CMiguel Olivo 73 · Jesus Montero 56 · John Jaso 43
1BJustin Smoak 131 · Mike Carp 23 · Dustin Ackley 11
2BDustin Ackley 142 · Kyle Seager 18 · Munenori Kawasaki 10
3BKyle Seager 138 · Alex Liddi 23 · Chone Figgins 10
SSBrendan Ryan 138 · Munenori Kawasaki 38 · Carlos Triunfel 7
LFCasper Wells 52 · Trayvon Robinson 46 · Eric Thames 44
CFMichael Saunders 113 · Franklin Gutierrez 38 · Casper Wells 11
RFEric Thames 35 · Casper Wells 25 · Carlos Peguero 11
DHJesus Montero 78 · John Jaso 46 · Miguel Olivo 12
SPFélix Hernández 6.7 · Kevin Millwood 2.6 · Jason Vargas 1.7 · Erasmo Ramírez 1.1 · Hisashi Iwakuma 0.9
BP★ Tom Wilhelmsen 29 · Lucas Luetge 12 · Josh Kinney 9 · Charlie Furbush 6 · Shawn Kelley 6 · Oliver Pérez 5 · Stephen Pryor 5 · Carter Capps 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Félix Hernández 26 FA-elig 336.7 18.5 -1.3
Kyle Seager 24 pre-arb 1553.8 0.5 +9.2
Kevin Millwood 37 FA-elig 282.6 1.0 +5.6
Michael Saunders 25 arb 1392.4 0.5 +5.7
John Jaso 28 arb 1082.4 0.5 +5.6
Dustin Ackley 24 pre-arb 1532.1 1.5 +3.9
Tom Wilhelmsen 28 pre-arb 731.8 0.5 +4.1
Jason Vargas 29 FA-elig 331.7 4.8 -0.5
Ichiro Suzuki↔ NYY 38 FA-elig 951.5 10.0 -6.2
Brendan Ryan 30 arb 1411.4 1.8 +1.8
Erasmo Ramírez 22 pre-arb 161.1 0.5 +2.3
Casper Wells 27 pre-arb 931.0 0.5 +2.1
Charlie Furbush 26 pre-arb 481.0 0.5 +2.0
Hisashi Iwakuma 31 pre-arb 300.9 1.5 +0.9
Blake Beavan 23 pre-arb 260.9 0.5 +1.8
Oliver Pérez 30 FA-elig 330.6 0.5 +1.1
Shawn Kelley 28 arb 470.5 0.6 +0.7
Carter Capps 21 – 180.5 0.5 +0.7
Brandon League↔ LAD 29 FA-elig 460.4 3.1 -2.0
Josh Kinney 33 pre-arb 350.2 0.2 +0.3
Carlos Triunfel 22 pre-arb 100.2 0.5 -0.0
Lucas Luetge 25 – 630.1 0.5 -0.1
Franklin Gutierrez 29 FA-elig 400.1 5.5 -5.3
Mike Carp 26 arb 59-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Eric Thames↔ TOR 25 pre-arb 40-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Carlos Peguero 25 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.5 -0.9
George Sherrill 35 FA-elig 2-0.2 1.1 -1.6
Munenori Kawasaki 31 pre-arb 61-0.3 0.6 -1.3
Stephen Pryor 22 pre-arb 27-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Trayvon Robinson 24 pre-arb 46-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Hector Noesí 25 pre-arb 22-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Luis Jimenez 30 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Alex Liddi 23 pre-arb 38-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Steve Delabar↔ TOR 28 pre-arb 34-0.3 0.3 -1.2
Miguel Olivo 33 FA-elig 87-0.7 3.5 -5.3
Justin Smoak 25 pre-arb 132-0.8 0.5 -2.6
Chone Figgins 34 FA-elig 66-0.9 9.0 -11.2
Jesus Montero 22 pre-arb 135-1.2 0.5 -3.5

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Millwood2.6
John Jaso2.4
Erasmo Ramírez1.1
Hisashi Iwakuma0.9
Oliver Pérez0.6
Carter Capps0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Michael Pineda3.5
Doug Fister3.3
Erik Bedard1.5
David Pauley0.5
Adam Kennedy0.4
Jack Wilson0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$73.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Félix Hernández266.060$18.5M$19.9M$22.9M$24.9M$25.9M$26.9M$26.9M
Ichiro Suzuki3811.000$10.0MFREE AGENT$750k
Chone Figgins348.145$9.0MFREE AGENT
Miguel Olivo338.171$3.5MFREE AGENT
George Sherrill356.147$1.1MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millwood3715.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez308.034$541k$1.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Franklin Gutierrez295.080$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Vargas294.114$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon League295.145$3.1MFREE AGENT
Brendan Ryan304.082$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Casper Wells273.040$488kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Dustin Ackley240.105$1.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hisashi Iwakuma310.000$1.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Munenori Kawasaki31-1.000$625kPre-ArbPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3
Shawn Kelley282.160$600kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Jaso282.032$495kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Smoak251.116$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Saunders251.138$489kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Carp261.010$489kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Noesí250.139$488kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Montero221.167$487kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Beavan232.069$486kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Seager240.085$484kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Wilhelmsen280.106$483kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Liddi230.130$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Peguero251.008$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Furbush260.121$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Luetge250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Jimenez30–$480k
Erasmo Ramírez220.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Pryor221.144$480kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trayvon Robinson240.127$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Triunfel220.030$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carter Capps210.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Delabar280.023$268kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Kinney332.163$249kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Thames250.115$226kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.