BAL⇄SEA

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$2.4M net +0.2

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2013 odds 23% → 24% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Trayvon RobinsonOF·25y·B/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#316 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.38/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jack Zduriencik net −$2.4M net -0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $13M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2013 odds 3% → 3% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Robert Andino2B/SS·29y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.