RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Jack Zduriencik

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.9× league · TAB -11.1
-11.1TAB — talent above budget25th/30
-13.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)27th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-8.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
69%dead money %30th/30
0.414win %28th/30
21.8roster fWAR26th/30
-27surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$86Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFFranklin Gutierrez 92GMichael Saunders 46GTrayvon Robinson 16G
LFCarlos Peguero 40GTrayvon Robinson 30GGreg Halman 29G
RFIchiro Suzuki 151GCasper Wells 58GCarlos Peguero 3G
SSBrendan Ryan 123GLuis Antonio Rodriguez 23GKyle Seager 10G
2BDustin Ackley 86GJack Wilson 45GAdam Kennedy 34G
3BChone Figgins 80GKyle Seager 42GAdam Kennedy 27G
1BJustin Smoak 108GAdam Kennedy 36GMike Carp 34G
STARTERSFélix Hernández 5.2WARMichael Pineda 3.5WARJason Vargas 2.6WARBlake Beavan 0.8WARCharlie Furbush 0.0WAR
CMiguel Olivo 127GJosh Bard 25GChris Gimenez 20G
DHJack Cust 63GWily Mo Peña 29GMike Carp 19G
BULLPEN★ Brandon League 37svJamey Wright 16hTom Wilhelmsen 3hJeff Gray 2hJosh Lueke 2hChris Ray 1hChance Ruffin 1hDan Cortes 1h
CMiguel Olivo 127 · Josh Bard 25 · Chris Gimenez 20
1BJustin Smoak 108 · Adam Kennedy 36 · Mike Carp 34
2BDustin Ackley 86 · Jack Wilson 45 · Adam Kennedy 34
3BChone Figgins 80 · Kyle Seager 42 · Adam Kennedy 27
SSBrendan Ryan 123 · Luis Antonio Rodriguez 23 · Kyle Seager 10
LFCarlos Peguero 40 · Trayvon Robinson 30 · Greg Halman 29
CFFranklin Gutierrez 92 · Michael Saunders 46 · Trayvon Robinson 16
RFIchiro Suzuki 151 · Casper Wells 58 · Carlos Peguero 3
DHJack Cust 63 · Wily Mo Peña 29 · Mike Carp 19
SPFélix Hernández 5.2 · Michael Pineda 3.5 · Jason Vargas 2.6 · Blake Beavan 0.8 · Charlie Furbush 0.0
BP★ Brandon League 37 · Jamey Wright 16 · Tom Wilhelmsen 3 · Jeff Gray 2 · Josh Lueke 2 · Chris Ray 1 · Chance Ruffin 1 · Dan Cortes 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Félix Hernández 25 FA-elig 335.2 11.7 +1.1
Michael Pineda 22 pre-arb 283.5 0.4 +8.2
Doug Fister↔ DET 27 pre-arb 213.3 0.3 +7.7
Dustin Ackley 23 – 903.0 1.5 +5.8
Brendan Ryan 29 arb 1232.8 1.0 +6.0
Jason Vargas 28 FA-elig 322.6 2.5 +4.0
Erik Bedard↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 161.5 0.7 +2.9
Brandon League 28 FA-elig 651.3 2.2 +1.0
Franklin Gutierrez 28 FA-elig 921.1 4.3 -1.6
Blake Beavan 22 pre-arb 150.8 0.4 +1.5
Kyle Seager 23 – 530.6 0.4 +1.1
Casper Wells↔ DET 26 pre-arb 310.6 0.1 +1.4
Mike Carp 25 pre-arb 790.6 0.4 +1.0
Justin Smoak 24 pre-arb 1230.6 0.4 +1.0
David Pauley↔ DET 28 arb 390.5 0.3 +1.0
Adam Kennedy 35 FA-elig 1140.4 0.8 +0.3
Jack Wilson↔ ATL 33 FA-elig 620.4 3.9 -2.9
Alex Liddi 22 pre-arb 150.3 0.4 +0.4
Chris Gimenez 28 pre-arb 240.3 0.4 +0.3
Shawn Kelley 27 pre-arb 100.3 0.4 +0.2
Tom Wilhelmsen 27 pre-arb 250.2 0.4 +0.2
Chris Ray 29 FA-elig 290.2 1.0 -0.4
Josh Lueke 26 pre-arb 250.2 0.4 +0.1
Cesar Jimenez 26 pre-arb 80.1 0.4 -0.1
Ichiro Suzuki 37 FA-elig 1610.0 18.0 -17.9
Charlie Furbush↔ DET 25 – 110.0 0.2 -0.1
Chance Ruffin↔ DET 22 pre-arb 13-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Jack Cust 32 FA-elig 67-0.1 2.5 -2.7
Adam Moore 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Luis Antonio Rodriguez 31 FA-elig 44-0.1 0.6 -0.8
Wily Mo Peña↔ ARI 29 – 22-0.1 – –
Steve Delabar 27 – 6-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Jamey Wright 36 FA-elig 60-0.1 0.9 -1.2
Dan Cortes 24 – 10-0.2 – –
Jeff Gray↔ CHW 29 – 24-0.2 – –
Carlos Peguero 24 – 46-0.2 – –
Josh Bard 33 FA-elig 26-0.3 0.8 -1.4
Greg Halman 23 – 35-0.3 – –
Mike Wilson 28 pre-arb 8-0.4 0.4 -1.4
Michael Saunders 24 pre-arb 58-0.5 0.4 -1.5
Milton Bradley 33 FA-elig 28-0.6 13.0 -14.4
Ryan Langerhans 31 FA-elig 19-0.6 0.5 -1.9
Aaron Laffey↔ NYY 26 arb 36-0.6 0.3 -1.9
Trayvon Robinson 23 pre-arb 44-0.9 0.4 -2.7
Anthony Vasquez 24 – 7-1.1 – –
Chone Figgins 33 FA-elig 81-1.2 9.5 -12.3
Miguel Olivo 32 FA-elig 130-1.2 2.5 -5.4

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Michael Pineda3.5
Dustin Ackley3.0
Brendan Ryan2.8
Erik Bedard1.5
Blake Beavan0.8
Kyle Seager0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Cliff Lee4.1
Russell Branyan0.8
Mike Sweeney0.5
Jose Lopez0.4
Kanekoa Texeira0.2
Luke French0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$86.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Ichiro Suzuki3710.000$18.0M$10.0MFREE AGENT
Milton Bradley339.169$13.0MFREE AGENT
Chone Figgins337.145$9.5M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Jack Wilson339.147$3.9MFREE AGENT
Miguel Olivo327.171$2.5M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Chris Ray296.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jamey Wright3612.086$900kFREE AGENT
Josh Bard337.088$750kFREE AGENT
Adam Kennedy3511.022$750kFREE AGENT
Erik Bedard327.171$667kFREE AGENT
Luis Antonio Rodriguez316.000$600kFREE AGENT
Wily Mo Peña299.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Félix Hernández255.060$11.7MFREE AGENT
Franklin Gutierrez284.080$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Cust324.148$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Vargas283.114$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon League284.145$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Ryan293.082$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Langerhans315.053$525kFREE AGENT
Aaron Laffey264.101$331kARB 3FREE AGENT
Casper Wells263.040$136kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Dustin Ackley230.000$1.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Saunders241.051$420kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Kelley272.000$420kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Smoak240.116$419kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Moore270.167$418kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Delabar270.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Wilson280.030$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Seager230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lueke260.109$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Wilhelmsen270.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Carp250.084$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Liddi220.130$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trayvon Robinson230.127$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Jimenez262.042$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Gimenez281.041$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Beavan222.069$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Pineda220.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chance Ruffin220.066$359kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Pauley281.011$311kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Fister271.058$286kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Furbush250.000$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Cortes24–—
Carlos Peguero240.008—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Vasquez24–—
Jeff Gray290.122—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Halman23–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.