RRosternomics
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Mariners SEA

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GM: Bill Bavasi

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.05× league · TAB -8.6
-8.6TAB — talent above budget24th/30
-19.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars20th/30
-4.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
49%dead money %26th/30
0.389win %28th/30
26.2roster fWAR21st/30
-32surplus $M (value vs cost)26th/30
$70Mpayroll $M13th/30

Roster

CFRandy Winn 128GHiram Bocachica 32GJeremy Reed 16G
LFRaul Ibanez 110GRandy Winn 40GJolbert Cabrera 21G
RFIchiro Suzuki 158GHiram Bocachica 12GRaul Ibanez 3G
SSJose Lopez 57GWillie Bloomquist 20GRamon Santiago 16G
2BBret Boone 148GJolbert Cabrera 18GMickey Lopez 3G
3BScott Spiezio 66GJolbert Cabrera 36GWillie Bloomquist 31G
1BScott Spiezio 42GJolbert Cabrera 23GBucky Jacobsen 21G
STARTERSBobby Madritsch 2.3WARJoel Pineiro 1.8WARRyan Franklin 1.3WARGil Meche 1.1WARRon Villone 0.3WAR
CDan Wilson 103GMiguel Olivo 95GRené Rivera 2G
DHEdgar Martinez 118GBucky Jacobsen 19GDave Hansen 8G
BULLPEN★ Eddie Guardado 18svShigetoshi Hasegawa 12hJulio Mateo 6hJ.J. Putz 3hGeorge Sherrill 3hScott Atchison 2hMatt Thornton 0hMasao Kida 0h
CDan Wilson 103 · Miguel Olivo 95 · René Rivera 2
1BScott Spiezio 42 · Jolbert Cabrera 23 · Bucky Jacobsen 21
2BBret Boone 148 · Jolbert Cabrera 18 · Mickey Lopez 3
3BScott Spiezio 66 · Jolbert Cabrera 36 · Willie Bloomquist 31
SSJose Lopez 57 · Willie Bloomquist 20 · Ramon Santiago 16
LFRaul Ibanez 110 · Randy Winn 40 · Jolbert Cabrera 21
CFRandy Winn 128 · Hiram Bocachica 32 · Jeremy Reed 16
RFIchiro Suzuki 158 · Hiram Bocachica 12 · Raul Ibanez 3
DHEdgar Martinez 118 · Bucky Jacobsen 19 · Dave Hansen 8
SPBobby Madritsch 2.3 · Joel Pineiro 1.8 · Ryan Franklin 1.3 · Gil Meche 1.1 · Ron Villone 0.3
BP★ Eddie Guardado 18 · Shigetoshi Hasegawa 12 · Julio Mateo 6 · J.J. Putz 3 · George Sherrill 3 · Scott Atchison 2 · Matt Thornton 0 · Masao Kida 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ichiro Suzuki 30 arb 1617.1 6.5 +5.7
Randy Winn 30 FA-elig 1573.8 3.5 +3.0
Raul Ibanez 32 FA-elig 1233.0 3.9 +1.3
Freddy Garcia↔ CHW 27 arb 152.6 3.3 +1.2
Bobby Madritsch 28 – 152.3 – –
Joel Pineiro 25 arb 211.8 3.0 +0.2
Ryan Franklin 31 arb 321.3 1.8 +0.4
Jolbert Cabrera 31 FA-elig 1131.2 1.0 +1.0
Gil Meche 25 arb 231.1 1.9 -0.1
Rich Aurilia↔ SDP 32 FA-elig 730.9 1.9 -0.3
Bret Boone 35 FA-elig 1480.9 8.0 -6.5
Jeremy Reed 23 – 180.8 – –
Dave Hansen↔ SDP 35 FA-elig 570.6 0.5 +0.5
Bucky Jacobsen 28 – 420.5 – –
Shigetoshi Hasegawa 35 FA-elig 680.5 2.8 -1.9
Hiram Bocachica 28 – 500.4 – –
John Olerud↔ NYY 35 FA-elig 780.3 4.7 -4.2
Scott Atchison 28 – 250.3 – –
Cha Seung Baek 24 – 70.3 – –
Ron Villone 34 FA-elig 560.3 1.0 -0.5
Justin Leone 27 – 310.2 – –
Eddie Guardado 33 FA-elig 410.2 4.0 -3.6
Matt Thornton 27 – 190.2 – –
Jose Lopez 20 – 570.2 – –
George Sherrill 27 – 210.2 – –
Mickey Lopez 30 – 60.1 – –
Miguel Olivo↔ CHW 25 pre-arb 500.1 0.2 -0.0
Rafael Soriano 24 pre-arb 60.1 0.3 -0.2
Dan Wilson 35 FA-elig 1030.0 3.5 -3.4
Randy Williams 28 – 6-0.0 – –
Pat Borders↔ MIN 41 – 19-0.1 – –
Clint Nageotte 23 – 12-0.1 – –
Masao Kida↔ LAD 35 – 7-0.1 – –
René Rivera 20 – 2-0.1 – –
Greg Dobbs 25 – 18-0.1 – –
Mike Myers↔ BOS 35 FA-elig 50-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Aaron Taylor 26 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Scott Spiezio 31 FA-elig 112-0.1 2.6 -2.8
Jamie Moyer 41 FA-elig 34-0.2 7.0 -7.3
Ramon Santiago 24 – 19-0.2 – –
J.J. Putz 27 – 54-0.2 – –
Kevin Jarvis↔ COL 34 FA-elig 8-0.3 3.4 -3.9
Julio Mateo 26 pre-arb 45-0.4 0.3 -1.0
Quinton McCracken↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 19-0.4 0.4 -1.2
Edgar Martinez 41 FA-elig 141-0.5 3.0 -3.8
Ben Davis↔ CHW 27 FA-elig 14-0.6 0.3 -1.3
Travis Blackley 21 – 6-0.7 – –
Willie Bloomquist 26 pre-arb 93-0.8 0.3 -1.7

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Raul Ibanez3.0
Bobby Madritsch2.3
Jolbert Cabrera1.2
Rich Aurilia0.9
Jeremy Reed0.8
Dave Hansen0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Mike Cameron5.3
Carlos Guillén2.3
Rey Sanchez1.0
Arthur Rhodes0.9
Jeff Nelson0.8
Mark McLemore0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$69.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Bret Boone3512.000$8.0M$7.6MFREE AGENT
Jamie Moyer4118.000$7.0M$8.0M$4.2MFREE AGENT
John Olerud3515.000$4.7MFREE AGENT
Eddie Guardado3311.000$4.0M$6.0M$4.1MFREE AGENT
Raul Ibanez328.000$3.9M$4.4M$4.2M$5.5M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Dan Wilson3512.000$3.5M$1.8MFREE AGENT
Randy Winn306.000$3.5M$2.4MFREE AGENT
Kevin Jarvis3410.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Edgar Martinez4117.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Shigetoshi Hasegawa357.000$2.8M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Spiezio318.000$2.6M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Rich Aurilia329.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Ron Villone349.000$1.0M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jolbert Cabrera316.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Dave Hansen3514.000$497kFREE AGENT
Quinton McCracken339.000$449kFREE AGENT
Mike Myers359.000$367kFREE AGENT
Ben Davis276.000$288kFREE AGENT
Pat Borders4116.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Ichiro Suzuki303.000$6.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Garcia275.000$3.3MFREE AGENT
Joel Pineiro254.000$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Gil Meche255.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Ryan Franklin315.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Masao Kida355.000—FREE AGENT
Hiram Bocachica284.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Julio Mateo262.000$345kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Soriano242.000$335kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willie Bloomquist262.000$325kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Taylor262.000$302kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Olivo252.000$167kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mickey Lopez30–—
J.J. Putz271.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Thornton270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramon Santiago242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Madritsch280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
René Rivera20–—
Greg Dobbs250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Atchison280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clint Nageotte23–—
Travis Blackley21–—
Jeremy Reed230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cha Seung Baek240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Leone27–—
George Sherrill270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Williams280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bucky Jacobsen28–—
Jose Lopez200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mariners 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.