RRosternomics
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Padres SDP

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GM: Jed Hoyer

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.47× league · TAB +5.3
+5.3TAB — talent above budget9th/30
-1.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
21%dead money %6th/30
0.438win %24th/30
30.2roster fWAR17th/30
+24surplus $M (value vs cost)5th/30
$45Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFCameron Maybin 136GChris Denorfia 15GWill Venable 14G
LFKyle Blanks 37GChris Denorfia 33GAaron Cunningham 13G
RFWill Venable 91GChris Denorfia 62GAaron Cunningham 18G
SSJason Bartlett 138GAlberto Gonzalez 30GAndy Parrino 4G
2BOrlando Hudson 114GAlberto Gonzalez 41GLogan Forsythe 23G
3BChase Headley 107GLogan Forsythe 26GAlberto Gonzalez 21G
1BJesus Guzman 53GAnthony Rizzo 45GBrad Hawpe 44G
STARTERSMat Latos 3.9WARCory Luebke 3.0WARTim Stauffer 1.6WARWade LeBlanc 1.3WARAaron Harang 1.1WAR
CNick Hundley 76GRob Johnson 63GKyle Phillips 24G
DHJesus Guzman 4GRyan Ludwick 4GBrad Hawpe 1G
BULLPEN★ Heath Bell 43svChad Qualls 22hLuke Gregerson 16hJosh Spence 7hErnesto Frieri 4hJeff Fulchino 4hAnthony Bass 4hPat Neshek 0h
CNick Hundley 76 · Rob Johnson 63 · Kyle Phillips 24
1BJesus Guzman 53 · Anthony Rizzo 45 · Brad Hawpe 44
2BOrlando Hudson 114 · Alberto Gonzalez 41 · Logan Forsythe 23
3BChase Headley 107 · Logan Forsythe 26 · Alberto Gonzalez 21
SSJason Bartlett 138 · Alberto Gonzalez 30 · Andy Parrino 4
LFKyle Blanks 37 · Chris Denorfia 33 · Aaron Cunningham 13
CFCameron Maybin 136 · Chris Denorfia 15 · Will Venable 14
RFWill Venable 91 · Chris Denorfia 62 · Aaron Cunningham 18
DHJesus Guzman 4 · Ryan Ludwick 4 · Brad Hawpe 1
SPMat Latos 3.9 · Cory Luebke 3.0 · Tim Stauffer 1.6 · Wade LeBlanc 1.3 · Aaron Harang 1.1
BP★ Heath Bell 43 · Chad Qualls 22 · Luke Gregerson 16 · Josh Spence 7 · Ernesto Frieri 4 · Jeff Fulchino 4 · Anthony Bass 4 · Pat Neshek 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2011 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Cameron Maybin 24 arb 1374.3 0.4 +10.1
Mat Latos 23 pre-arb 313.9 0.5 +9.1
Cory Luebke 26 pre-arb 473.0 0.4 +7.0
Chase Headley 27 arb 1132.4 2.3 +3.5
Nick Hundley 27 arb 822.1 0.4 +4.6
Jesus Guzman 27 – 762.1 – –
Will Venable 28 arb 1211.7 0.4 +3.7
Tim Stauffer 29 FA-elig 321.6 1.1 +2.9
Mike Adams↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 491.5 1.6 +2.0
Orlando Hudson 33 FA-elig 1191.5 4.0 -0.4
Wade LeBlanc 26 pre-arb 141.3 0.4 +2.8
Jason Bartlett 31 FA-elig 1391.2 4.0 -1.1
Aaron Harang 33 FA-elig 281.1 3.5 -0.9
Chris Denorfia 30 FA-elig 1111.0 0.8 +1.7
Dustin Moseley 29 arb 201.0 0.9 +1.5
Kyle Blanks 24 pre-arb 551.0 0.4 +1.9
Heath Bell 33 FA-elig 640.8 7.5 -5.4
Ryan Ludwick↔ PIT 32 FA-elig 1010.6 4.9 -3.4
Ernesto Frieri 25 pre-arb 590.6 0.4 +1.1
Jeremy Hermida↔ CIN 27 arb 200.6 0.2 +1.2
Luke Gregerson 27 pre-arb 610.5 0.4 +0.9
Clayton Richard 27 arb 200.5 0.5 +0.8
Kyle Phillips 27 – 360.4 – –
Logan Forsythe 24 – 620.4 0.4 +0.5
Andy Parrino 25 – 240.3 – –
Aaron Cunningham 25 – 520.2 – –
Brad Brach 25 – 90.1 0.1 +0.1
Evan Scribner 25 – 100.1 – –
Josh Spence 23 – 400.0 – –
Samuel Deduno 27 pre-arb 20.0 0.4 -0.4
Chad Qualls 32 FA-elig 77-0.0 1.5 -1.6
Anthony Bass 23 – 27-0.0 – –
Drew Carpenter↔ PHI 26 – 6-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Jeff Fulchino↔ HOU 31 arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Brad Hawpe 32 FA-elig 62-0.1 2.0 -2.1
Joe Thatcher 29 arb 18-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Cedric Hunter 23 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Everth Cabrera 24 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Eric Patterson 28 arb 47-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Erik Hamren 24 – 14-0.3 – –
Blake Tekotte 24 – 19-0.3 – –
Luis Martinez 26 pre-arb 22-0.4 0.4 -1.3
James Darnell 24 – 18-0.5 – –
Alberto Gonzalez 28 arb 102-0.5 0.6 -1.9
Anthony Rizzo 21 – 49-0.6 0.1 -1.5
Pat Neshek 30 arb 25-0.6 0.6 -2.0
Jorge Cantu 29 FA-elig 57-0.7 0.8 -2.6
Rob Johnson 28 arb 67-0.8 0.4 -2.5

Key additions (new vs 2010)

PlayerfWAR
Cameron Maybin4.3
Jesus Guzman2.1
Orlando Hudson1.5
Jason Bartlett1.2
Aaron Harang1.1
Dustin Moseley1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2010)

Player2010 fWAR
Adrián González4.4
Yorvit Torrealba3.4
Tony Gwynn Jr.2.0
David Eckstein1.6
Jerry Hairston Jr.1.5
Miguel Tejada1.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2011 payroll
$44.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2011, 2011–2017. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Orlando Hudson338.068$4.0M$3.3MFREE AGENT
Aaron Harang338.061$3.5MFREE AGENT
Brad Hawpe326.058$2.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Qualls326.058$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jorge Cantu296.036$850kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Heath Bell335.099$7.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Ludwick325.109$4.9MFREE AGENT
Jason Bartlett315.086$4.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Adams324.019$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Stauffer293.007$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Moseley293.030$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia303.041$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Neshek304.005$625kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Gonzalez283.135$600kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Patterson284.000$423kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Johnson283.007$422kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida275.016$205kFREE AGENT
Jeff Fulchino315.000$36kFREE AGENT
Aaron Cunningham253.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2011201220132014201520162017
Chase Headley272.123$2.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clayton Richard272.070$469kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mat Latos231.079$461kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson272.000$448kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Venable281.155$444kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hundley272.088$440kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Thatcher292.068$434kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin241.073$429kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Blanks241.108$425kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernesto Frieri250.101$417kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Luebke260.033$416kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Samuel Deduno270.038$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc261.075$414kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Martinez260.116$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe240.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cedric Hunter230.000$414kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Everth Cabrera242.000$414kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Carpenter260.028$207kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Rizzo210.000$149kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Brach250.000$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Phillips27–—
Jesus Guzman270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Tekotte240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Parrino250.109—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Scribner250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bass230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Darnell240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Hamren24–—
Josh Spence230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2011; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.