RRosternomics
𝕏

Padres SDP

‹ ›

GM: Josh Byrnes

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.6× league · TAB +1.1
+1.1TAB — talent above budget14th/30
+0.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)18th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-5.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
47%dead money %27th/30
0.469win %19th/30
29.1roster fWAR19th/30
+17surplus $M (value vs cost)6th/30
$60Mpayroll $M29th/30

Roster

CFCameron Maybin 145GWill Venable 21GAlexi Amarista 11G
LFCarlos Quentin 69GChris Denorfia 53GJesus Guzman 52G
RFWill Venable 114GChris Denorfia 79GMark Kotsay 9G
SSEverth Cabrera 111GJason Bartlett 27GAndy Parrino 26G
2BLogan Forsythe 81GAlexi Amarista 52GAndy Parrino 15G
3BChase Headley 159GLogan Forsythe 4GAndy Parrino 2G
1BYonder Alonso 149GJesus Guzman 19GMark Kotsay 5G
STARTERSEric Stults 1.4WAREdinson Volquez 1.1WARJason Marquis 1.0WARAnthony Bass 1.0WARCory Luebke 0.7WAR
CNick Hundley 56GJohn Baker 56GYasmani Grandal 55G
DHCarlos Quentin 5GLogan Forsythe 2GJesus Guzman 1G
BULLPEN★ Huston Street 23svLuke Gregerson 24hDale Thayer 22hBrad Brach 15hJoe Thatcher 14hTommy Layne 7hNick Vincent 5hMiles Mikolas 1h
CNick Hundley 56 · John Baker 56 · Yasmani Grandal 55
1BYonder Alonso 149 · Jesus Guzman 19 · Mark Kotsay 5
2BLogan Forsythe 81 · Alexi Amarista 52 · Andy Parrino 15
3BChase Headley 159 · Logan Forsythe 4 · Andy Parrino 2
SSEverth Cabrera 111 · Jason Bartlett 27 · Andy Parrino 26
LFCarlos Quentin 69 · Chris Denorfia 53 · Jesus Guzman 52
CFCameron Maybin 145 · Will Venable 21 · Alexi Amarista 11
RFWill Venable 114 · Chris Denorfia 79 · Mark Kotsay 9
DHCarlos Quentin 5 · Logan Forsythe 2 · Jesus Guzman 1
SPEric Stults 1.4 · Edinson Volquez 1.1 · Jason Marquis 1.0 · Anthony Bass 1.0 · Cory Luebke 0.7
BP★ Huston Street 23 · Luke Gregerson 24 · Dale Thayer 22 · Brad Brach 15 · Joe Thatcher 14 · Tommy Layne 7 · Nick Vincent 5 · Miles Mikolas 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chase Headley 28 arb 1617.2 3.5 +15.1
Yasmani Grandal 23 pre-arb 603.5 0.8 +8.3
Will Venable 29 arb 1482.3 1.5 +4.5
Carlos Quentin 29 FA-elig 862.2 7.0 -1.3
Chris Denorfia 31 FA-elig 1301.9 1.2 +3.9
Cameron Maybin 25 arb 1471.8 0.5 +4.3
Everth Cabrera 25 pre-arb 1151.6 0.5 +3.7
Logan Forsythe 25 pre-arb 911.4 0.5 +3.2
Eric Stults↔ CHW 32 pre-arb 181.4 0.3 +3.3
Edinson Volquez 28 FA-elig 321.1 2.2 +0.7
Yonder Alonso 25 pre-arb 1551.1 1.0 +1.9
Huston Street 28 FA-elig 401.1 7.5 -4.6
Anthony Bass 24 pre-arb 251.0 0.5 +2.1
Jason Marquis↔ MIN 33 FA-elig 171.0 2.1 +0.4
Jesus Guzman 28 arb 1200.9 0.5 +1.7
Cory Luebke 27 pre-arb 50.7 0.5 +1.3
Dale Thayer 31 pre-arb 640.7 0.5 +1.3
Tommy Layne 27 – 260.6 – –
Luke Gregerson 28 arb 770.6 1.6 +0.1
Andrew Cashner 25 pre-arb 330.5 0.5 +0.8
Joe Thatcher 30 arb 550.4 0.7 +0.3
Nick Vincent 25 – 270.4 0.5 +0.5
Andrew Werner 25 pre-arb 80.3 0.5 +0.3
Alexi Amarista↔ ANA 23 pre-arb 1050.3 0.5 +0.2
Clayton Richard 28 arb 370.2 2.7 -2.2
Eddy Rodriguez 26 – 20.2 – –
Jeremy Hermida 28 FA-elig 130.1 0.8 -0.5
Joe Wieland 22 – 50.1 0.5 -0.2
Ernesto Frieri↔ ANA 26 arb 110.1 0.1 +0.1
John Baker 31 arb 630.0 0.8 -0.7
Josh Spence 24 pre-arb 110.0 0.5 -0.4
Cory Burns 24 pre-arb 17-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Kyle Blanks 25 arb 4-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Mark Kotsay 36 FA-elig 82-0.0 1.2 -1.3
Casey Kelly 22 – 7-0.0 – –
Tim Stauffer 30 FA-elig 1-0.0 3.2 -3.3
Dustin Moseley 30 FA-elig 1-0.0 2.0 -2.1
James Darnell 25 – 7-0.0 – –
Orlando Hudson↔ CHW 34 FA-elig 35-0.1 2.2 -2.4
Ali Solis 24 – 5-0.1 – –
Matt Palmer 33 – 3-0.1 – –
Micah Owings 29 arb 6-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Brad Boxberger 24 – 24-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Ross Ohlendorf 29 arb 13-0.2 0.9 -1.4
Andy Parrino 26 pre-arb 55-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Jeff Suppan 37 – 8-0.2 – –
Blake Tekotte 25 – 11-0.3 – –
Alex Hinshaw↔ CHC 29 – 31-0.3 – –
Miles Mikolas 23 – 25-0.4 0.3 -1.3
Kip Wells 35 – 8-0.5 – –
Brad Brach 26 pre-arb 67-0.5 0.5 -1.8
Jason Bartlett 32 FA-elig 29-0.7 5.5 -7.3
Nick Hundley 28 arb 58-1.9 2.0 -6.9

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Yasmani Grandal3.5
Carlos Quentin2.2
Eric Stults1.4
Edinson Volquez1.1
Yonder Alonso1.1
Huston Street1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Mat Latos3.9
Mike Adams1.5
Wade LeBlanc1.3
Heath Bell0.8
Ryan Ludwick0.6
Kyle Phillips0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$60.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Huston Street287.000$7.5M$7.0M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Bartlett326.086$5.5MFREE AGENT
Orlando Hudson349.068$2.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Marquis3311.012$2.1M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay3614.018$1.2M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Jeff Suppan3714.164—FREE AGENT
Kip Wells3513.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Carlos Quentin295.065$7.0MFREE AGENT
Chase Headley283.123$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Stauffer304.007$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Clayton Richard283.070$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edinson Volquez284.059$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin Moseley304.030$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hundley283.088$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Gregerson283.000$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia314.041$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Ohlendorf293.139$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida285.060$800kFREE AGENT
John Baker313.083$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Thatcher303.068$700kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Owings294.035$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Hinshaw294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Palmer334.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Will Venable292.155$1.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonder Alonso250.116$1.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yasmani Grandal230.016$750kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Maybin252.073$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Luebke271.033$498kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Blanks252.032$492kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesus Guzman280.151$487kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner251.126$486kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bass240.108$485kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Forsythe250.113$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Parrino261.109$481kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Werner250.043$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vincent250.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Everth Cabrera252.004$480kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Burns240.115$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dale Thayer310.082$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Brach260.029$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Wieland220.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Spence240.100$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Amarista230.075$476kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Stults321.097$330kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miles Mikolas230.000$273kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Boxberger240.000$197kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernesto Frieri261.101$80kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eddy Rodriguez26–—
Ali Solis24–—
Blake Tekotte250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Layne270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
James Darnell250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kelly220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Padres 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.