SDP⇄SFG

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$11.2M net +2.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$12.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 3.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2003 odds 3% → 3% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Clay HensleyP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$12.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 3.1

Prior

#247 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Brian Sabean net −$11.2M net -2.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $9M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2003 odds 59% → 64% (+4.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt HergesP·33y·L/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.70 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.