RRosternomics
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Pirates PIT

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GM: Ben Cherington

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.49× league · TAB +0.2
+0.2TAB — talent above budget20th/30
-1.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)21st/30
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-5.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
36%dead money %21st/30
0.438win %26th/30
25.7roster fWAR25th/30
+21surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$76Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFOneil Cruz 125GAlexander Canario 29GJack Suwinski 25G
LFTommy Pham 115GAlexander Canario 31GJack Suwinski 20G
RFBryan Reynolds 117GAlexander Canario 24GJack Suwinski 15G
SSJared Triolo 47GLiover Peguero 16GNick Gonzales 13G
2BNick Gonzales 85GNick Yorke 14GJared Triolo 11G
3BJared Triolo 32GCam Devanney 14GNick Yorke 1G
1BSpencer Horwitz 102GEnmanuel Valdez 26GJared Triolo 24G
STARTERSPaul Skenes 6.5WARMitch Keller 2.5WARBraxton Ashcraft 1.6WARCarmen Mlodzinski 1.6WARMike Burrows 1.3WAR
CHenry Davis 83GJoey Bart 83GEndy Rodríguez 9G
DHAndrew McCutchen 120GBryan Reynolds 35GRonny Simon 5G
BULLPEN★ Dennis Santana 16svIsaac Mattson 12hChase Shugart 5hKyle Nicolas 3hColin Holderman 2hEvan Sisk 2hDauri Moreta 2hYohan Ramírez 1h
CHenry Davis 83 · Joey Bart 83 · Endy Rodríguez 9
1BSpencer Horwitz 102 · Enmanuel Valdez 26 · Jared Triolo 24
2BNick Gonzales 85 · Nick Yorke 14 · Jared Triolo 11
3BJared Triolo 32 · Cam Devanney 14 · Nick Yorke 1
SSJared Triolo 47 · Liover Peguero 16 · Nick Gonzales 13
LFTommy Pham 115 · Alexander Canario 31 · Jack Suwinski 20
CFOneil Cruz 125 · Alexander Canario 29 · Jack Suwinski 25
RFBryan Reynolds 117 · Alexander Canario 24 · Jack Suwinski 15
DHAndrew McCutchen 120 · Bryan Reynolds 35 · Ronny Simon 5
SPPaul Skenes 6.5 · Mitch Keller 2.5 · Braxton Ashcraft 1.6 · Carmen Mlodzinski 1.6 · Mike Burrows 1.3
BP★ Dennis Santana 16 · Isaac Mattson 12 · Chase Shugart 5 · Kyle Nicolas 3 · Colin Holderman 2 · Evan Sisk 2 · Dauri Moreta 2 · Yohan Ramírez 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Paul Skenes 23 pre-arb 326.5 0.9 +24.9
Mitch Keller 29 arb 322.5 15.4 -5.5
Spencer Horwitz 27 pre-arb 1081.7 0.8 +6.1
Carmen Mlodzinski 26 pre-arb 341.6 0.7 +5.8
Oneil Cruz 26 pre-arb 1351.6 0.8 +5.5
Braxton Ashcraft 25 – 261.6 0.6 +5.7
Jared Triolo 27 pre-arb 1071.4 0.3 +5.4
Joey Bart 28 arb 931.3 1.2 +4.1
Mike Burrows 25 – 231.3 – –
David Bednar↔ NYY 30 – 421.3 2.6 +2.3
Dennis Santana 29 arb 701.2 1.4 +3.2
Bryan Reynolds 30 arb 1541.1 12.2 -8.0
Bubba Chandler 22 – 70.9 0.2 +3.6
Nick Gonzales 26 pre-arb 960.9 0.8 +2.8
Ke'Bryan Hayes↔ CIN 28 – 1000.8 3.1 -0.0
Isiah Kiner-Falefa↔ TOR 30 – 1190.8 4.4 -1.5
Caleb Ferguson↔ SEA 28 – 450.7 1.3 +1.3
Isaac Mattson 29 pre-arb 440.6 0.5 +2.0
Bailey Falter↔ KCR 28 – 220.5 1.3 +0.8
Justin Lawrence 30 pre-arb 170.5 1.0 +0.9
Johan Oviedo 27 arb 90.2 0.8 +0.0
Tommy Pham 37 FA-elig 1200.2 4.0 -3.2
Kyle Nicolas 26 pre-arb 310.2 0.5 +0.1
Yohan Ramírez 30 arb 240.2 0.3 +0.4
Dauri Moreta 29 pre-arb 180.1 0.6 -0.0
Joey Wentz↔ ATL 27 – 190.1 0.2 +0.4
Hunter Barco 24 – 20.1 0.0 +0.5
Adam Frazier↔ KCR 33 – 780.1 0.5 -0.1
Evan Sisk↔ KCR 28 – 140.1 0.1 +0.3
Liover Peguero 24 pre-arb 330.1 0.4 -0.0
Enmanuel Valdez 26 pre-arb 310.1 0.8 -0.4
Tim Mayza↔ PHI 33 – 70.1 0.6 -0.3
Brett Sullivan 31 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.2
Tanner Rainey↔ DET 32 – 110.1 0.2 +0.0
Michael Darrell-Hicks↔ ANA 27 – 10.0 0.1 +0.1
Rafael Flores Jr. 24 – 7-0.0 – –
Billy Cook 26 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Ryan Borucki↔ TOR 31 – 35-0.0 0.9 -1.0
Génesis Cabrera↔ CHC 28 – 9-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Nick Yorke 23 pre-arb 22-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Chase Shugart 28 pre-arb 35-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Henry Davis 25 pre-arb 87-0.1 0.7 -1.1
Andrew McCutchen 38 FA-elig 135-0.1 5.0 -5.5
Hunter Stratton↔ ATL 28 – 3-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Tsung-Che Cheng 23 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.2 -0.7
Cam Sanders 28 – 6-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Andrew Heaney↔ LAD 34 – 26-0.2 5.1 -5.9
Ronny Simon↔ MIA 25 – 8-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Ji Hwan Bae 25 – 13-0.2 0.3 -1.2
Matt Gorski 27 – 15-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Thomas Harrington 23 – 3-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Nick Solak 30 – 4-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Cam Devanney 28 – 14-0.4 0.2 -1.8
Colin Holderman 29 pre-arb 24-0.5 1.5 -3.3
Alexander Canario 25 pre-arb 87-0.5 0.7 -2.6
Jack Suwinski 26 pre-arb 59-0.5 0.2 -2.4
Endy Rodríguez 25 pre-arb 18-0.6 0.8 -3.3

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Spencer Horwitz1.7
Braxton Ashcraft1.6
Bubba Chandler0.9
Caleb Ferguson0.7
Justin Lawrence0.5
Johan Oviedo0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Yasmani Grandal1.3
Aroldis Chapman1.1
Luis Ortiz0.9
Connor Joe0.5
Michael A. Taylor0.4
Jalen Beeks0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$75.9M
2026 guaranteed
$38.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Mitch Keller295.026$15.4M$16.9M$18.4M$20.4MFREE AGENT
Bryan Reynolds305.163$12.2M$14.2M$15.2M$15.2M$15.2M$15.2M$20.0MCLUB
Andrew Heaney349.150$5.1MFREE AGENT
Andrew McCutchen3815.123$5.0MFREE AGENT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa307.000$4.4MFREE AGENT
Tommy Pham379.092$4.0MFREE AGENT
Ke'Bryan Hayes284.075$3.1M$7.0M$7.0M$8.0M$8.0M$12.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Caleb Ferguson286.093$1.3MFREE AGENT
Ryan Borucki316.066$933kFREE AGENT
Adam Frazier338.075$535kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
David Bednar304.076$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Santana294.126$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Bart283.020$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Oviedo273.079$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Mayza335.129$611kFREE AGENT
Yohan Ramírez303.055$323kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ji Hwan Bae253.000$286kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Rainey325.127$195kFREE AGENT
Nick Solak304.126$86kARB 3FREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera285.011$78kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (37)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Colin Holderman292.144$1.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Falter282.138$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Lawrence302.167$975kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Skenes231.000$875kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oneil Cruz262.110$785kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Endy Rodríguez251.077$775kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Gonzales261.018$775kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Horwitz270.152$768kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enmanuel Valdez261.018$767kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexander Canario250.062$744kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carmen Mlodzinski261.088$723kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Davis251.039$705kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dauri Moreta292.104$594kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Shugart280.034$594kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braxton Ashcraft250.000$555kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Nicolas260.170$534kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaac Mattson290.029$505kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Liover Peguero240.089$361kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jared Triolo271.078$335kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Yorke230.014$220kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wentz271.166$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Suwinski262.058$211kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bubba Chandler220.000$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Harrington230.000$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tsung-Che Cheng230.010$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cam Devanney28–$152k
Billy Cook260.022$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Gorski27–$133k
Evan Sisk280.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cam Sanders280.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Darrell-Hicks27–$58k
Ronny Simon25–$52k
Brett Sullivan310.110$49kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Stratton281.028$45kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Barco240.000$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Burrows25–—
Rafael Flores Jr.24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Pirates 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.