NYM⇄PIT

NYMNYM David Stearns net +$3.2M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2025 odds 67% → 69% (+2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ben Cherington net −$3.2M net -0.5

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $20M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 2.1 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2025 odds 2% → 2% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alexander CanarioOF·25y·R/R

+$9.4M+$9.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 2.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.