PIT⇄TEX

PITPIT Ben Cherington net +$1.6M net +0.1

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2026 odds 34% → 35% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jaiker GarciaP·21y·R/R

+$2.0M+$2.0M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.83 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Chris Young net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2026 odds 25% → 25% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carter BaumlerP·24y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#133 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.