ATL⇄PIT

ATLATL Alex Anthopoulos net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2025 odds 9% → 9% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Hunter StrattonP·28y·R/R

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#478 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.38/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Ben Cherington net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2025 odds 2% → 2% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Titus DumitruOF·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#491 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.