RRosternomics

Phillies PHI

GM: Matt Klentak

Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.59× league · TAB -2.6
-2.6TAB — talent above budget18th/30
-9.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-6.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
63%dead money %30th/30
0.407win %28th/30
25.2roster fWAR22nd/30
+8surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$77Mpayroll $M27th/30

Roster

CFOdúbel Herrera 133GAaron Altherr 19GNick Williams 16G
LFHyun Soo Kim 55GAaron Altherr 52GDaniel Nava 42G
RFNick Williams 58GAaron Altherr 50GCameron Perkins 12G
SSFreddy Galvis 155GJ.P. Crawford 6GAndrés Blanco 4G
2BCésar Hernández 127GAndrés Blanco 15GTy Kelly 14G
3BMaikel Franco 144GAndrés Blanco 16GJ.P. Crawford 13G
1BTommy Joseph 130GRhys Hoskins 27GBrock Stassi 21G
STARTERSAaron Nola 4.3WARJerad Eickhoff 2.0WARBen Lively 1.2WARNick Pivetta 0.9WARVince Velasquez 0.4WAR
CCameron Rupp 88GAndrew Knapp 53GJorge Alfaro 28G
DHMaikel Franco 2GTommy Joseph 2GHyun Soo Kim 2G
BULLPEN Héctor Neris 26svLuis García 14hEdubray Ramos 9hKevin Siegrist 9hHoby Milner 7hAdam Morgan 6hJoely Rodríguez 3hRicardo Pinto 2h
CCameron Rupp 88 · Andrew Knapp 53 · Jorge Alfaro 28
1BTommy Joseph 130 · Rhys Hoskins 27 · Brock Stassi 21
2BCésar Hernández 127 · Andrés Blanco 15 · Ty Kelly 14
3BMaikel Franco 144 · Andrés Blanco 16 · J.P. Crawford 13
SSFreddy Galvis 155 · J.P. Crawford 6 · Andrés Blanco 4
LFHyun Soo Kim 55 · Aaron Altherr 52 · Daniel Nava 42
CFOdúbel Herrera 133 · Aaron Altherr 19 · Nick Williams 16
RFNick Williams 58 · Aaron Altherr 50 · Cameron Perkins 12
DHMaikel Franco 2 · Tommy Joseph 2 · Hyun Soo Kim 2
SPAaron Nola 4.3 · Jerad Eickhoff 2.0 · Ben Lively 1.2 · Nick Pivetta 0.9 · Vince Velasquez 0.4
BP Héctor Neris 26 · Luis García 14 · Edubray Ramos 9 · Kevin Siegrist 9 · Hoby Milner 7 · Adam Morgan 6 · Joely Rodríguez 3 · Ricardo Pinto 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Aaron Nola 24 pre-arb 274.3 0.5 +14.0
César Hernández 27 arb 1282.8 2.5 +6.8
Odúbel Herrera 25 pre-arb 1382.7 1.6 +7.7
Aaron Altherr 26 arb 1072.2 0.5 +6.9
Jerad Eickhoff 26 pre-arb 242.0 0.6 +6.3
Rhys Hoskins 24 502.0 0.2 +6.6
Freddy Galvis 27 arb 1621.7 4.3 +1.4
Pat Neshek↔ COL 36 FA-elig 431.6 3.9 +1.4
Edubray Ramos 24 pre-arb 591.3 0.5 +3.8
Luis García 30 pre-arb 661.3 0.5 +3.8
Ben Lively 25 151.2 0.2 +3.8
Héctor Neris 28 arb 741.1 0.6 +3.3
Nick Pivetta 24 260.9 0.4 +2.7
Daniel Nava 34 FA-elig 800.9 1.4 +1.7
Howie Kendrick↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 390.7 4.3 -1.8
Joaquín Benoit↔ PIT 39 FA-elig 440.6 6.3 -4.3
J.P. Crawford 22 230.5 0.1 +1.6
Pedro Florimón 30 pre-arb 150.5 0.1 +1.4
Jeremy Hellickson↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 200.5 11.5 -9.9
Adam Morgan 27 pre-arb 370.4 0.5 +1.0
Nick Williams 23 830.4 0.3 +1.2
Vince Velasquez 25 pre-arb 160.4 0.5 +0.7
Jorge Alfaro 24 pre-arb 290.3 0.2 +1.0
Víctor Arano 22 100.3 0.1 +1.0
Hoby Milner 26 370.1 0.3 +0.1
Mark Leiter Jr. 26 270.1 0.4 -0.1
Kevin Siegrist↔ STL 27 arb 70.1 0.2 +0.0
Clay Buchholz 32 FA-elig 20.1 13.5 -13.2
Zac Curtis↔ SEA 24 pre-arb 30.1 0.0 +0.2
Andrew Knapp 25 pre-arb 560.1 0.5 -0.3
Juan Nicasio↔ PIT 30 FA-elig 20.0 0.1 +0.0
Drew Anderson 23 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Pedro Beato 30 pre-arb 10.0 0.1 +0.0
Maikel Franco 24 arb 154-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Jake Thompson 23 pre-arb 12-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Yacksel Ríos 24 13-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Brock Stassi 27 pre-arb 51-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Henderson Alvarez 27 3-0.2
Casey Fien↔ SEA 33 FA-elig 4-0.2 0.4 -1.2
Cameron Rupp 28 pre-arb 88-0.2 0.6 -1.4
Zach Eflin 23 pre-arb 11-0.3 0.3 -1.1
Ty Kelly↔ NYM 28 pre-arb 69-0.3 0.4 -1.4
Jesen Therrien 24 15-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Joely Rodríguez 25 pre-arb 27-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Ricardo Pinto 23 26-0.4 0.2 -1.7
Tommy Joseph 25 pre-arb 142-0.5 0.5 -2.1
Jeanmar Gómez 29 FA-elig 18-0.5 4.2 -5.9
Hyun Soo Kim↔ BAL 29 pre-arb 40-0.5 1.8 -3.5
Andrés Blanco 33 FA-elig 80-0.6 3.0 -4.9
Michael Saunders↔ TOR 30 FA-elig 61-0.7 6.7 -9.0
Cameron Perkins 26 42-0.8 0.3 -2.9

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Rhys Hoskins2.0
Pat Neshek1.6
Ben Lively1.2
Nick Pivetta0.9
Daniel Nava0.9
Howie Kendrick0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Alec Asher0.5
Roman Quinn0.4
Peter Bourjos0.4
Severino González0.4
David Hernandez0.3
Phil Klein0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$77.3M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Clay Buchholz328.059$13.5MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Hellickson306.045$11.5MFREE AGENT
Michael Saunders306.138$6.7MFREE AGENT
Joaquín Benoit3915.040$6.3MFREE AGENT
Howie Kendrick3310.091$4.3MFREE AGENT
Pat Neshek368.159$3.9MFREE AGENT
Andrés Blanco336.007$3.0MFREE AGENT
Henderson Alvarez276.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Freddy Galvis274.021$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeanmar Gómez295.063$4.2MFREE AGENT
Daniel Nava345.024$1.4MFREE AGENT
Casey Fien334.118$440kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Siegrist273.116$249kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Nicasio305.084$96kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (37)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
César Hernández272.154$2.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hyun Soo Kim291.000$1.8MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Odúbel Herrera252.000$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Rupp282.089$565kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Maikel Franco241.170$560kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Héctor Neris281.104$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerad Eickhoff261.045$552kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vince Velasquez251.086$547kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Nola241.076$544kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Joseph250.143$543kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edubray Ramos240.101$540kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Morgan271.054$539kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Altherr261.054$538kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Knapp250.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joely Rodríguez250.023$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Stassi270.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis García302.017$471kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Kelly280.076$431kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Leiter Jr.260.000$392kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Pivetta240.000$374kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hoby Milner260.000$304kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Eflin230.111$302kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Williams230.000$275kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cameron Perkins26$251k
Ricardo Pinto230.000$246kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Lively250.000$234kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesen Therrien24$193k
Jorge Alfaro240.024$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rhys Hoskins240.000$155kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Florimón302.080$134kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Thompson230.058$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yacksel Ríos240.000$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Crawford220.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Víctor Arano220.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Beato301.169$53kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zac Curtis240.097$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Anderson230.000$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Phillies 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3