WSN⇄PHI

WSNWSN Michael Rizzo net +$13.6M net +4.0

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $11M expected surplus · +$13.6M realized received 1.8 ± 1 expected · 4.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2017 odds 72% → 75% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Howie Kendrick2B·33y·R/R

+$12.8M+$12.8M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 1.8± 1 exp WARrealized 4.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.81/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Matt Klentak net −$13.6M net -4.0

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2017 odds 3% → 2% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

McKenzie MillsP·21y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#544 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.