RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.61× league · TAB +14.3
+14.3TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+20.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-3.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
38%dead money %18th/30
0.593win %3rd/30
42.4roster fWAR7th/30
+52surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$63Mpayroll $M26th/30

2013: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCoco Crisp 110GChris Young 54GYoenis Cespedes 18G
LFYoenis Cespedes 94GSeth Smith 50GChris Young 24G
RFJosh Reddick 113GBrandon Moss 27GChris Young 26G
SSJed Lowrie 119GEric Sogard 15GAndy Parrino 7G
2BEric Sogard 113GAlberto Callaspo 32GJed Lowrie 24G
3BJosh Donaldson 155GAlberto Callaspo 93GAndy Parrino 2G
1BBrandon Moss 111GNate Freiman 59GDaric Barton 36G
STARTERSBartolo Colon 3.9WARDan Straily 1.9WARSonny Gray 1.5WARA.J. Griffin 1.5WARJarrod Parker 1.3WAR
CKurt Suzuki 93GDerek Norris 91GJohn Jaso 48G
DHSeth Smith 53GYoenis Cespedes 27GCoco Crisp 20G
BULLPEN Grant Balfour 38svSean Doolittle 26hRyan Cook 23hDan Otero 8hJerry Blevins 4hPat Neshek 1hJesse Chavez 1hChris Resop 0h
CKurt Suzuki 93 · Derek Norris 91 · John Jaso 48
1BBrandon Moss 111 · Nate Freiman 59 · Daric Barton 36
2BEric Sogard 113 · Alberto Callaspo 32 · Jed Lowrie 24
3BJosh Donaldson 155 · Alberto Callaspo 93 · Andy Parrino 2
SSJed Lowrie 119 · Eric Sogard 15 · Andy Parrino 7
LFYoenis Cespedes 94 · Seth Smith 50 · Chris Young 24
CFCoco Crisp 110 · Chris Young 54 · Yoenis Cespedes 18
RFJosh Reddick 113 · Brandon Moss 27 · Chris Young 26
DHSeth Smith 53 · Yoenis Cespedes 27 · Coco Crisp 20
SPBartolo Colon 3.9 · Dan Straily 1.9 · Sonny Gray 1.5 · A.J. Griffin 1.5 · Jarrod Parker 1.3
BP Grant Balfour 38 · Sean Doolittle 26 · Ryan Cook 23 · Dan Otero 8 · Jerry Blevins 4 · Pat Neshek 1 · Jesse Chavez 1 · Chris Resop 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Josh Donaldson 27 arb 1587.2 0.5 +18.9
Bartolo Colon 40 FA-elig 303.9 3.0 +7.5
Coco Crisp 33 FA-elig 1313.7 7.0 +2.9
Jed Lowrie 29 arb 1543.4 2.4 +6.7
Derek Norris 24 pre-arb 982.9 0.5 +7.3
Brandon Moss 29 FA-elig 1452.4 1.6 +4.9
Josh Reddick 26 arb 1142.3 0.5 +5.5
Dan Straily 24 pre-arb 271.9 0.5 +4.7
Yoenis Cespedes 27 pre-arb 1351.9 8.5 -3.4
Sean Doolittle 26 pre-arb 701.6 0.5 +3.9
Ryan Cook 26 pre-arb 711.6 0.5 +3.7
Sonny Gray 23 121.5 0.2 +4.0
A.J. Griffin 25 pre-arb 321.5 0.5 +3.5
Eric Sogard 27 arb 1301.5 0.5 +3.4
Jarrod Parker 24 pre-arb 321.3 0.5 +3.0
Tommy Milone 26 pre-arb 281.2 0.5 +2.8
Dan Otero 28 pre-arb 330.8 0.3 +1.9
Jesse Chavez 29 pre-arb 350.7 0.4 +1.5
Seth Smith 30 FA-elig 1170.7 3.7 -1.8
Daric Barton 27 FA-elig 370.6 1.1 +0.5
John Jaso 29 arb 700.6 1.8 -0.2
Grant Balfour 35 FA-elig 650.6 4.5 -3.0
Stephen Vogt 28 pre-arb 470.5 0.2 +1.1
Chris Young 29 FA-elig 1070.4 8.5 -7.4
Jerry Blevins 29 FA-elig 670.3 1.1 -0.2
Brett Anderson 25 arb 160.3 5.8 -4.9
Alberto Callaspo↔ ANA 30 FA-elig 500.2 1.5 -0.9
Kurt Suzuki↔ WSN 29 FA-elig 150.1 1.0 -0.8
Evan Scribner 27 pre-arb 180.0 0.5 -0.4
Michael Choice 23 90.0 0.1 -0.0
Casper Wells↔ CHW 28 arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Adam Rosales↔ TEX 30 arb 51-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Scott Sizemore 28 arb 2-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Shane Peterson 25 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Nate Freiman 26 pre-arb 80-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Hideki Okajima 37 5-0.2
Luke Montz 29 13-0.2 0.1 -0.5
Pedro Figueroa 27 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Pat Neshek 32 FA-elig 45-0.2 1.0 -1.5
Jemile Weeks 26 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Chris Resop 30 FA-elig 18-0.3 1.4 -2.2
Andy Parrino 27 pre-arb 14-0.5 0.5 -1.8
Michael Taylor 27 9-0.5
Grant Green↔ ANA 25 5-0.7 0.0 -2.0

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Jed Lowrie3.4
Sonny Gray1.5
Dan Otero0.8
John Jaso0.6
Stephen Vogt0.5
Chris Young0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Jonny Gomes2.3
Brandon McCarthy1.9
Chris Carter1.5
Cliff Pennington1.0
Jordan Norberto0.5
George Kottaras0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$63.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Chris Young297.162$8.5MFREE AGENT
Coco Crisp339.158$7.0M$7.5M$11.0M$9.2MFREE AGENT
Grant Balfour358.099$4.5MFREE AGENT
Bartolo Colon4014.061$3.0MFREE AGENT
Hideki Okajima376.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Brett Anderson254.000$5.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Smith304.119$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jed Lowrie294.111$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
John Jaso293.032$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alberto Callaspo305.135$1.5MFREE AGENT
Chris Resop304.038$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins293.081$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daric Barton273.148$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki295.112$1.0MFREE AGENT
Pat Neshek324.159$975kARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Rosales303.099$525kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Sizemore283.055$500kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casper Wells283.040$29kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Yoenis Cespedes271.000$8.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Moss292.160$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Reddick262.050$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Cook261.036$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Parker241.000$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Scribner271.018$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Milone261.026$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Sogard271.064$495kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Straily240.062$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Doolittle260.122$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Figueroa270.077$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Parrino271.109$492kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Donaldson270.158$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Norris240.102$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Griffin250.102$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Freiman260.000$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Chavez292.128$407kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Otero280.055$287kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stephen Vogt280.060$203kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sonny Gray230.000$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Montz29$83k
Jemile Weeks261.114$80kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Choice230.000$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grant Green251.033$16kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Peterson250.126$5kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Taylor271.038Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3