OAK⇄ARI

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$3.2M net +0.9

received +$6.4M+$6.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2010 odds 13% → 14% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Conor Jackson1B/OF·28y·R/R

+$6.1M+$6.1M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.27/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.64/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Jerry Dipoto net +$3.2M net -0.9

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2010 odds 3% → 2% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sam DemelP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

#120 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.