TEX⇄OAK

TEXTEX Jon Daniels net +$1.6M net +0.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $36M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2010 odds 49% → 49% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gregorio Petit2B/SS·25y·R/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $36M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.7/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $16M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2010 odds 14% → 14% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Edwar RamírezP·29y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

-0.04/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.