ARI⇄OAK

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net +$6.4M net +2.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 2.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2006 odds 5% → 6% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan CruzP·27y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$6.4M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$6.4M net -2.4

received +$33.6M+$33.6M ± $50M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.9 ± 6 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2006 odds 18% → 14% (-4.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brad HalseyP·25y·L/L

+$33.8M+$33.8M± $50M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.9± 6 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#246 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.