RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 7 in this regime · payroll 0.78× league · TAB +10.1
+10.1TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+9.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
30%dead money %13th/30
0.543win %9th/30
41.3roster fWAR6th/30
+16surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$56Mpayroll $M22nd/30

Roster

CFMark Kotsay 137GJay Payton 41GCharles Thomas 9G
LFJay Payton 60GBobby Kielty 58GMatt Watson 14G
RFNick Swisher 121GBobby Kielty 42GCharles Thomas 8G
SSBobby Crosby 84GMarco Scutaro 81GMark Ellis 7G
2BMark Ellis 115GMarco Scutaro 30GKeith Ginter 25G
3BEric Chavez 153GKeith Ginter 12GMarco Scutaro 5G
1BDan Johnson 101GScott Hatteberg 53GNick Swisher 21G
STARTERSDan Haren 3.8WARRich Harden 3.6WARBarry Zito 3.0WARJoe Blanton 2.2WARKirk Saarloos 1.5WAR
CJason Kendall 147GAlberto Castillo 35GAdam Melhuse 24G
DHScott Hatteberg 78GErubiel Durazo 39GBobby Kielty 15G
BULLPEN Huston Street 23svJay Witasick 17hRicardo Rincon 16hKiko Calero 12hJustin Duchscherer 10hKeiichi Yabu 1hJuan Cruz 0hOctavio Dotel 0h
CJason Kendall 147 · Alberto Castillo 35 · Adam Melhuse 24
1BDan Johnson 101 · Scott Hatteberg 53 · Nick Swisher 21
2BMark Ellis 115 · Marco Scutaro 30 · Keith Ginter 25
3BEric Chavez 153 · Keith Ginter 12 · Marco Scutaro 5
SSBobby Crosby 84 · Marco Scutaro 81 · Mark Ellis 7
LFJay Payton 60 · Bobby Kielty 58 · Matt Watson 14
CFMark Kotsay 137 · Jay Payton 41 · Charles Thomas 9
RFNick Swisher 121 · Bobby Kielty 42 · Charles Thomas 8
DHScott Hatteberg 78 · Erubiel Durazo 39 · Bobby Kielty 15
SPDan Haren 3.8 · Rich Harden 3.6 · Barry Zito 3.0 · Joe Blanton 2.2 · Kirk Saarloos 1.5
BP Huston Street 23 · Jay Witasick 17 · Ricardo Rincon 16 · Kiko Calero 12 · Justin Duchscherer 10 · Keiichi Yabu 1 · Juan Cruz 0 · Octavio Dotel 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Eric Chavez 27 FA-elig 1605.2 8.5 +1.3
Mark Ellis 28 arb 1224.4 0.4 +7.9
Dan Haren 24 pre-arb 343.8 0.3 +6.9
Bobby Crosby 25 pre-arb 843.8 0.3 +6.8
Rich Harden 23 pre-arb 223.6 0.3 +6.5
Barry Zito 27 arb 353.0 5.6 +0.1
Joe Blanton 24 pre-arb 332.2 0.3 +3.9
Nick Swisher 24 pre-arb 1312.2 0.3 +3.8
Justin Duchscherer 27 arb 651.9 0.3 +3.3
Marco Scutaro 29 arb 1181.9 0.3 +3.2
Jason Kendall 31 FA-elig 1501.8 10.6 -7.1
Mark Kotsay 29 FA-elig 1391.8 6.5 -3.2
Huston Street 21 pre-arb 671.7 0.3 +3.0
Kirk Saarloos 26 291.5
Dan Johnson 25 1091.4
Jay Payton↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 691.3 1.9 +0.4
Bobby Kielty 28 arb 1161.0 0.9 +1.0
Eric Byrnes↔ BAL 29 arb 590.8 1.0 +0.5
Kiko Calero 30 pre-arb 580.7 0.3 +1.1
Joe Kennedy↔ COL 26 arb 190.7 1.2 +0.1
Jay Witasick↔ COL 32 280.2
Adam Melhuse 33 arb 390.2 0.4 -0.0
Ron Flores 25 110.1
Freddie Bynum Jr. 25 70.1
Seth Etherton 28 30.1
Jermaine Clark 28 40.0
Santiago Casilla 24 30.0 0.3 -0.3
Matt Watson 26 19-0.0
Octavio Dotel 31 FA-elig 15-0.0 4.8 -4.8
Alberto Castillo↔ KCR 35 FA-elig 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Keiichi Yabu 36 pre-arb 40-0.0 0.8 -0.8
Hiram Bocachica 29 9-0.1
Britt Reames 31 2-0.1
Tim Harikkala 33 8-0.1
Ryan Glynn 30 5-0.2
Juan Cruz 26 arb 28-0.2 0.6 -1.0
Erubiel Durazo 31 FA-elig 41-0.4 4.7 -5.5
Ricardo Rincon 35 FA-elig 67-0.5 1.9 -2.9
Charles Thomas 26 pre-arb 30-0.5 0.3 -1.3
Keith Ginter 29 arb 51-0.8 0.6 -2.0
Scott Hatteberg 35 FA-elig 134-0.9 2.5 -4.2

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Ellis4.4
Dan Haren3.8
Jason Kendall1.8
Huston Street1.7
Dan Johnson1.4
Jay Payton1.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Tim Hudson4.6
Mark Mulder2.4
Jermaine Dye1.8
Damian Miller1.7
Mark Redman1.3
Chris Hammond0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$56.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Jason Kendall319.000$10.6M$11.5M$7.6MFREE AGENT
Eric Chavez277.000$8.5M$9.5M$9.5M$11.5M$11.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay298.000$6.5M$7.0M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Octavio Dotel316.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Erubiel Durazo316.000$4.7MFREE AGENT
Scott Hatteberg3510.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Jay Payton327.000$1.9M$4.0MFREE AGENT
Ricardo Rincon358.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Alberto Castillo3510.000$13kFREE AGENT
Jay Witasick329.000$1.0M$833kFREE AGENT
Ryan Glynn306.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Barry Zito275.000$5.6MFREE AGENT
Joe Kennedy264.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Byrnes295.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Bobby Kielty284.000$875kARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Cruz264.000$600kARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Ginter295.000$583kFREE AGENT
Mark Ellis283.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Melhuse335.000$385kFREE AGENT
Justin Duchscherer274.000$330kARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Scutaro293.000$324kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Etherton285.000FREE AGENT
Hiram Bocachica295.000FREE AGENT
Britt Reames315.000FREE AGENT
Jermaine Clark284.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirk Saarloos263.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Keiichi Yabu360.000$750kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Crosby252.000$350kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Harden232.000$336kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kiko Calero302.000$330kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Haren242.000$324kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charles Thomas261.000$319kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Swisher241.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Blanton241.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla241.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Huston Street210.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Harikkala33
Matt Watson26
Freddie Bynum Jr.250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Johnson250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Flores25

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3