MIL⇄OAK

MILMIL Matt Arnold net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $34M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jonathan Ornelas3B/SS·26y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#91 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.81 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK David Forst net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± band is the uncertainty — wide for unproven prospects, tight for established veterans. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.