RRosternomics

Yankees NYY

GM: Brian Cashman

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↗ rising
expensive & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 2.54× league · TAB -4.3
-4.3TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
+2.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-7.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag27th/30
15%dead money %4th/30
0.599win %1st/30
41.5roster fWAR4th/30
-115surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$194Mpayroll $M1st/30

2006: made playoffs · 97–65. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJohnny Damon 131GBernie Williams 28GBubba Crosby 24G
LFMelky Cabrera 116GHideki Matsui 36GBubba Crosby 10G
RFBobby Abreu 154GBernie Williams 58GCraig Wilson 32G
SSDerek Jeter 150GNick Green 20GMiguel Cairo 14G
2BRobinson Canó 118GMiguel Cairo 45GNick Green 23G
3BAlex Rodriguez 151GNick Green 17GAndy Phillips 10G
1BAndy Phillips 94GCraig Wilson 78GJason Giambi 68G
STARTERSMike Mussina 5.1WARChien-Ming Wang 3.7WARRandy Johnson 3.2WARJaret Wright 2.4WARJeff Karstens 0.2WAR
CJorge Posada 134GSal Fasano 77GWil Nieves 6G
DHJason Giambi 70GBernie Williams 30GJohnny Damon 16G
BULLPEN Mariano Rivera 34svScott Proctor 26hKyle Farnsworth 19hMike Myers 18hRon Villone 6hBrian Bruney 4hTanyon Sturtze 3hT.J. Beam 2h
CJorge Posada 134 · Sal Fasano 77 · Wil Nieves 6
1BAndy Phillips 94 · Craig Wilson 78 · Jason Giambi 68
2BRobinson Canó 118 · Miguel Cairo 45 · Nick Green 23
3BAlex Rodriguez 151 · Nick Green 17 · Andy Phillips 10
SSDerek Jeter 150 · Nick Green 20 · Miguel Cairo 14
LFMelky Cabrera 116 · Hideki Matsui 36 · Bubba Crosby 10
CFJohnny Damon 131 · Bernie Williams 28 · Bubba Crosby 24
RFBobby Abreu 154 · Bernie Williams 58 · Craig Wilson 32
DHJason Giambi 70 · Bernie Williams 30 · Johnny Damon 16
SPMike Mussina 5.1 · Chien-Ming Wang 3.7 · Randy Johnson 3.2 · Jaret Wright 2.4 · Jeff Karstens 0.2
BP Mariano Rivera 34 · Scott Proctor 26 · Kyle Farnsworth 19 · Mike Myers 18 · Ron Villone 6 · Brian Bruney 4 · Tanyon Sturtze 3 · T.J. Beam 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Derek Jeter 32 FA-elig 1546.1 20.6 -8.4
Mike Mussina 37 FA-elig 325.1 19.0 -8.8
Jorge Posada 35 FA-elig 1434.3 12.0 -3.5
Alex Rodriguez 30 FA-elig 1543.8 21.7 -14.1
Chien-Ming Wang 26 pre-arb 343.7 0.4 +7.1
Johnny Damon 32 FA-elig 1493.6 13.0 -5.8
Randy Johnson 42 FA-elig 333.2 15.7 -9.2
Jason Giambi 35 FA-elig 1393.0 20.4 -14.4
Robinson Canó 23 pre-arb 1222.4 0.4 +4.3
Jaret Wright 30 FA-elig 312.4 7.7 -3.0
Mariano Rivera 36 FA-elig 632.1 10.5 -6.2
Bobby Abreu↔ PHI 32 FA-elig 581.7 5.1 -1.6
Melky Cabrera 21 1301.6
Scott Proctor 29 pre-arb 831.2 0.4 +2.0
Kyle Farnsworth 30 FA-elig 721.1 5.4 -3.3
Hideki Matsui 32 arb 510.7 13.0 -11.5
Kevin Thompson 26 190.5
Darrell Rasner 25 60.4
Aaron Guiel↔ KCR 33 440.3
Gary Sheffield 37 FA-elig 390.3 10.8 -10.2
Miguel Cairo 32 FA-elig 810.3 1.0 -0.5
Brian Bruney 24 190.2 0.3 +0.2
Mike Myers 37 FA-elig 620.2 1.1 -0.7
Jeff Karstens 23 80.2
Matt Smith↔ PHI 27 120.1
Sidney Ponson↔ STL 29 FA-elig 50.1 0.3 -0.1
Nick Green↔ TBR 27 pre-arb 460.0 0.3 -0.2
Andy Cannizaro 27 13-0.0
Colter Bean 29 2-0.0
Ron Villone 36 FA-elig 70-0.1 2.2 -2.4
Kevin Reese 28 10-0.1
Jose Veras 25 12-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Sean Henn 25 4-0.1
Kelly Stinnett↔ NYM 36 FA-elig 34-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Wil Nieves 28 arb 6-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Terrence Long 30 12-0.1
Sal Fasano↔ PHI 34 FA-elig 28-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Kris Wilson 29 5-0.2
Octavio Dotel 32 FA-elig 14-0.2 2.0 -2.5
T.J. Beam 25 20-0.2
Cory Lidle↔ PHI 34 FA-elig 10-0.3 1.1 -1.6
Scott Erickson 38 9-0.3
Shawn Chacon↔ PIT 28 arb 17-0.3 2.4 -3.0
Tanyon Sturtze 35 FA-elig 18-0.3 1.5 -2.2
Bubba Crosby 29 arb 65-0.5 0.4 -1.4
Aaron Small 34 FA-elig 11-0.7 1.2 -2.6
Craig Wilson↔ PIT 29 arb 40-0.8 1.1 -2.7
Andy Phillips 29 pre-arb 110-0.9 0.3 -2.1
Bernie Williams 37 FA-elig 131-1.2 1.5 -4.0

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Johnny Damon3.6
Bobby Abreu1.7
Kyle Farnsworth1.1
Kevin Thompson0.5
Darrell Rasner0.4
Aaron Guiel0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Kevin Brown1.5
Tom Gordon0.9
Al Leiter0.6
Carl Pavano0.5
Felix Escalona0.3
Tino Martinez0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$193.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Alex Rodriguez3012.000$21.7M$22.7M$28.0M$33.0M$33.0M$32.0M$29.0M
Derek Jeter3211.000$20.6M$21.6M$21.6M$21.6M$22.6M$14.7M$16.0M
Jason Giambi3511.000$20.4M$23.4M$23.4MFREE AGENT
Mike Mussina3715.000$19.0M$11.1M$11.1MFREE AGENT
Randy Johnson4218.000$15.7MFREE AGENT
Johnny Damon3211.000$13.0M$13.0M$13.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Jorge Posada3511.000$12.0M$12.0M$13.1M$13.1M$13.1M$13.1MFREE AGENT
Gary Sheffield3718.000$10.8MFREE AGENT
Mariano Rivera3611.000$10.5M$10.5M$15.0M$15.0M$15.0M$14.9M$15.0M
Jaret Wright309.000$7.7MFREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth307.000$5.4M$5.7M$4.4MFREE AGENT
Bobby Abreu3210.000$5.1M$15.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Ron Villone3611.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Octavio Dotel327.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Tanyon Sturtze3511.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Bernie Williams3715.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Aaron Small3412.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Mike Myers3711.000$1.1M$955kFREE AGENT
Cory Lidle349.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Miguel Cairo3210.000$1.0M$494kFREE AGENT
Kelly Stinnett3612.000$539kFREE AGENT
Sidney Ponson298.000$263kFREE AGENT
Sal Fasano3410.000$153kFREE AGENT
Scott Erickson3816.000FREE AGENT
Terrence Long307.000FREE AGENT
Kris Wilson296.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Hideki Matsui323.000$13.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Chacon285.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Craig Wilson295.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Bubba Crosby293.000$354kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wil Nieves284.000$329kARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Guiel334.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Robinson Canó231.000$381kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chien-Ming Wang261.000$353kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Proctor292.000$353kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Phillips292.000$333kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Bruney242.000$328kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Green272.000$260kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Veras250.000$193kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Henn251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colter Bean29
Darrell Rasner251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Karstens230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Smith270.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Beam25
Kevin Thompson26
Kevin Reese28
Andy Cannizaro27
Melky Cabrera211.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Yankees 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3