PIT⇄NYY

PITPIT Dave Littlefield net −$0.8M net +0.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · −$12.0M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2006 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Shawn ChacónP·28y·R/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$12.0M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$0.8M net -0.6

received +$8.8M+$4.8M ± $15M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2006 odds 51% → 50% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Craig Wilson1B/OF·29y·R/R

+$8.6M+$4.6M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.13/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.