NYY⇄PHI

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$32.8M net +6.4

received +$44.0M+$43.2M ± $25M expected surplus · −$34.4M realized received 8.2 ± 3 expected · 6.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2006 odds 44% → 50% (+6.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Cory LidleP·34y·R/R

+$28.7M+$27.9M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 3.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.9/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.09/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Bobby AbreuOF·32y·L/R

+$15.2M+$15.2M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$25.6M 5.2± 2 exp WARrealized 6.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.0/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

3.56/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Pat Gillick net +$32.8M net -6.4

received +$16.0M+$16.0M ± $58M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 5.9 ± 7 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2006 odds 48% → 42% (-6.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

C.J. HenrySS·20y·R/R

+$13.4M+$13.4M± $47M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.6± 6 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#17 overall draft pick → 0.60/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Carlos MonasteriosP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jesus Sanchez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Matt SmithP·27y·L/L

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#1310 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.