RRosternomics

Mets NYM

GM: Sandy Alderson

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.09× league · TAB -6.2
-6.2TAB — talent above budget21st/30
-13.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)28th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-5.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag17th/30
19%dead money %3rd/30
0.432win %25th/30
29.2roster fWAR16th/30
-44surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$143Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFJuan Lagares 85GMichael Conforto 43GBrandon Nimmo 12G
LFYoenis Cespedes 74GNorichika Aoki 64GMichael Conforto 52G
RFNorichika Aoki 47GTravis Taijeron 15GMichael Conforto 11G
SSJosé Reyes 80GAmed Rosario 45GAsdrúbal Cabrera 45G
2BAsdrúbal Cabrera 32GJosé Reyes 28GGavin Cecchini 20G
3BWilmer Flores 55GAsdrúbal Cabrera 44GJosé Reyes 36G
1BDominic Smith 46GWilmer Flores 29GT.J. Rivera 20G
STARTERSJacob deGrom 4.7WARSeth Lugo 1.8WARNoah Syndergaard 1.6WARRafael Montero 1.1WARRobert Gsellman 0.8WAR
CTravis d'Arnaud 93GKevin Plawecki 29GTomás Nido 3G
DHCurtis Granderson 3GYoenis Cespedes 1GAsdrúbal Cabrera 1G
BULLPEN AJ Ramos 27svJerry Blevins 19hPaul Sewald 13hJosh Smoker 7hHansel Robles 5hJosh Edgin 4hNeil Ramírez 2hErik Goeddel 1h
CTravis d'Arnaud 93 · Kevin Plawecki 29 · Tomás Nido 3
1BDominic Smith 46 · Wilmer Flores 29 · T.J. Rivera 20
2BAsdrúbal Cabrera 32 · José Reyes 28 · Gavin Cecchini 20
3BWilmer Flores 55 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 44 · José Reyes 36
SSJosé Reyes 80 · Amed Rosario 45 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 45
LFYoenis Cespedes 74 · Norichika Aoki 64 · Michael Conforto 52
CFJuan Lagares 85 · Michael Conforto 43 · Brandon Nimmo 12
RFNorichika Aoki 47 · Travis Taijeron 15 · Michael Conforto 11
DHCurtis Granderson 3 · Yoenis Cespedes 1 · Asdrúbal Cabrera 1
SPJacob deGrom 4.7 · Seth Lugo 1.8 · Noah Syndergaard 1.6 · Rafael Montero 1.1 · Robert Gsellman 0.8
BP AJ Ramos 27 · Jerry Blevins 19 · Paul Sewald 13 · Josh Smoker 7 · Hansel Robles 5 · Josh Edgin 4 · Neil Ramírez 2 · Erik Goeddel 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jacob deGrom 29 arb 374.7 4.0 +11.7
Michael Conforto 24 pre-arb 1094.3 0.6 +13.8
Jay Bruce↔ CLE 30 FA-elig 1032.1 9.2 -2.1
Curtis Granderson↔ LAD 36 FA-elig 1111.8 11.3 -5.1
Seth Lugo 27 pre-arb 201.8 0.5 +5.4
Yoenis Cespedes 31 arb 811.8 22.5 -16.6
Noah Syndergaard 24 pre-arb 71.6 0.6 +4.8
Travis d'Arnaud 28 arb 1121.6 1.9 +3.5
José Reyes 34 FA-elig 1451.5 22.0 -17.1
Asdrúbal Cabrera 31 FA-elig 1351.4 8.2 -3.4
Juan Lagares 28 arb 941.2 4.5 -0.3
Brandon Nimmo 24 pre-arb 691.1 0.5 +3.3
Rafael Montero 26 arb 341.1 0.5 +3.1
Neil Walker↔ MIL 31 FA-elig 731.1 11.3 -7.7
Jerry Blevins 33 FA-elig 750.9 5.5 -2.5
Lucas Duda↔ TBR 31 FA-elig 750.9 4.3 -1.3
Addison Reed↔ BOS 28 FA-elig 480.9 4.8 -1.9
Wilmer Flores 25 arb 1100.8 2.2 +0.7
T.J. Rivera 28 pre-arb 730.8 0.5 +2.2
Robert Gsellman 23 pre-arb 270.8 0.5 +2.1
Paul Sewald 27 570.6 0.5 +1.4
René Rivera↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 540.3 1.3 -0.2
Jeurys Familia 27 arb 260.3 7.4 -6.4
Phillip Evans 24 190.3 0.1 +0.9
Steven Matz 26 pre-arb 170.3 0.6 +0.3
Norichika Aoki↔ HOU 35 arb 270.2 1.4 -0.7
Chasen Bradford 27 280.2 0.3 +0.4
Jamie Callahan 22 pre-arb 90.2 0.1 +0.5
Zack Wheeler 27 arb 180.2 0.8 -0.3
Matt Reynolds 26 pre-arb 680.1 0.4 +0.0
Fernando Salas↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 480.1 2.4 -2.1
AJ Ramos↔ MIA 30 arb 210.1 2.3 -2.0
Tomás Nido 23 50.0 0.1 +0.0
Kevin Plawecki 26 pre-arb 37-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Ty Kelly↔ PHI 28 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Sean Gilmartin 27 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Josh Edgin 30 arb 46-0.0 0.7 -0.8
Tyler Pill 27 7-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Kevin McGowan 25 8-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Jacob Rhame 24 9-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Amed Rosario 21 46-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Neil Ramírez↔ SFG 28 arb 20-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Adam Wilk↔ MIN 29 1-0.3 0.0 -0.9
Erik Goeddel 28 pre-arb 33-0.3 0.3 -1.3
Josh Smoker 28 pre-arb 54-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Travis Taijeron 28 26-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Hansel Robles 26 pre-arb 46-0.4 0.6 -1.8
Tommy Milone↔ MIL 30 FA-elig 11-0.4 0.8 -2.1
Gavin Cecchini 23 pre-arb 32-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Dominic Smith 22 49-0.7 0.2 -2.6
Chris Flexen 22 14-0.8 0.2 -2.7
Matt Harvey 28 arb 19-1.1 5.1 -9.0

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Paul Sewald0.6
Phillip Evans0.3
Norichika Aoki0.2
Chasen Bradford0.2
Jamie Callahan0.2
Zack Wheeler0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Bartolo Colon2.2
Kelly Johnson1.0
Gabriel Ynoa0.4
Justin Ruggiano0.2
James Loney-0.0
Jim Henderson-0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$142.9M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
José Reyes3413.038$22.0MFREE AGENT
Curtis Granderson3614.077$11.3MFREE AGENT
Neil Walker316.166$11.3MFREE AGENT
Jay Bruce308.125$9.2MFREE AGENT
Asdrúbal Cabrera319.027$8.2MFREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins337.081$5.5MFREE AGENT
Fernando Salas326.048$2.4MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Yoenis Cespedes315.000$22.5MFREE AGENT
Jeurys Familia274.029$7.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Harvey284.072$5.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Reed285.001$4.8MFREE AGENT
Juan Lagares283.160$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Duda315.137$4.3MFREE AGENT
AJ Ramos304.030$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Flores253.003$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis d'Arnaud283.044$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Norichika Aoki355.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
René Rivera335.070$1.3MFREE AGENT
Tommy Milone304.113$809kARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Wheeler273.098$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Edgin303.097$675kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Reynolds264.089$380kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Jacob deGrom292.139$4.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noah Syndergaard241.149$606kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Matz261.099$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Conforto241.042$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hansel Robles262.000$553kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Lugo270.082$544kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Gsellman230.042$542kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Montero261.090$541kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
T.J. Rivera280.054$540kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Smoker281.044$537kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Nimmo240.061$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Ramírez282.095$517kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Sewald270.000$465kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Goeddel281.126$301kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chasen Bradford270.000$251kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Plawecki261.087$228kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Flexen220.000$199kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Amed Rosario210.000$181kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Cecchini230.082$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dominic Smith220.000$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Taijeron28$108k
Kevin McGowan250.000$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Rhame240.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jamie Callahan220.030$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillip Evans240.000$70kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Pill27$58k
Tomás Nido230.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Gilmartin271.054$50kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Wilk290.000$13kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Kelly280.076$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mets 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3