PHI⇄NYM

PHIPHI Matt Klentak net +$1.6M net +0.3

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $5M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2018 odds 9% → 9% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José BautistaOF·37y·R/R

+$9.2M+$9.2M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.79/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2018 odds 16% → 15% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.