RRosternomics

Mets NYM

GM: Sandy Alderson

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.53× league · TAB +8.5
+8.5TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+0.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-4.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag13th/30
47%dead money %26th/30
0.457win %20th/30
34.8roster fWAR15th/30
+39surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$55Mpayroll $M28th/30

Roster

CFJuan Lagares 108GKirk Nieuwenhuis 25GEric Young Jr. 18G
LFEric Young Jr. 95GLucas Duda 58GMike Baxter 17G
RFMike Baxter 30GRick Ankiel 26GAndrew Brown 25G
SSOmar Quintanilla 92GRubén Tejada 55GJustin Turner 18G
2BDaniel Murphy 150GJordany Valdespin 12GJustin Turner 12G
3BDavid Wright 111GWilmer Flores 26GJustin Turner 23G
1BIke Davis 96GLucas Duda 34GJosh Satin 33G
STARTERSMatt Harvey 6.6WARJonathon Niese 2.6WARDillon Gee 2.1WARShaun Marcum 1.6WARZack Wheeler 1.0WAR
CAnthony Recker 38GTravis d'Arnaud 30GJuan Centeno 4G
DHAndrew Brown 3GLucas Duda 2GJosh Satin 2G
BULLPEN Bobby Parnell 22svScott Rice 17hLaTroy Hawkins 12hScott Atchison 10hBrandon Lyon 7hDavid Aardsma 4hJosh Edgin 3hGreg Burke 1h
CAnthony Recker 38 · Travis d'Arnaud 30 · Juan Centeno 4
1BIke Davis 96 · Lucas Duda 34 · Josh Satin 33
2BDaniel Murphy 150 · Jordany Valdespin 12 · Justin Turner 12
3BDavid Wright 111 · Wilmer Flores 26 · Justin Turner 23
SSOmar Quintanilla 92 · Rubén Tejada 55 · Justin Turner 18
LFEric Young Jr. 95 · Lucas Duda 58 · Mike Baxter 17
CFJuan Lagares 108 · Kirk Nieuwenhuis 25 · Eric Young Jr. 18
RFMike Baxter 30 · Rick Ankiel 26 · Andrew Brown 25
DHAndrew Brown 3 · Lucas Duda 2 · Josh Satin 2
SPMatt Harvey 6.6 · Jonathon Niese 2.6 · Dillon Gee 2.1 · Shaun Marcum 1.6 · Zack Wheeler 1.0
BP Bobby Parnell 22 · Scott Rice 17 · LaTroy Hawkins 12 · Scott Atchison 10 · Brandon Lyon 7 · David Aardsma 4 · Josh Edgin 3 · Greg Burke 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Matt Harvey 24 pre-arb 276.6 0.5 +17.3
David Wright 30 FA-elig 1125.6 11.0 +4.1
Marlon Byrd↔ PIT 35 FA-elig 1173.3 0.6 +8.2
Daniel Murphy 28 arb 1613.1 2.9 +5.5
Jonathon Niese 26 arb 242.6 3.0 +4.0
Juan Lagares 24 1212.3 0.4 +5.8
Dillon Gee 27 arb 322.1 0.5 +5.1
Shaun Marcum 31 FA-elig 151.6 4.0 +0.4
Bobby Parnell 28 arb 491.6 1.7 +2.6
Eric Young Jr.↔ COL 28 arb 911.3 0.3 +3.2
LaTroy Hawkins 40 FA-elig 721.2 1.0 +2.1
Josh Satin 28 pre-arb 751.1 0.3 +2.5
Zack Wheeler 23 181.0 0.3 +2.4
Jenrry Mejia 23 arb 60.7 0.5 +1.4
Lucas Duda 27 arb 1000.6 0.5 +1.2
Gonzalez Germen 25 pre-arb 290.6 0.2 +1.4
Jeremy Hefner 27 pre-arb 240.6 0.5 +1.1
Scott Rice 31 pre-arb 730.5 0.5 +0.9
Justin Turner 28 arb 860.5 0.5 +0.9
Daisuke Matsuzaka 32 FA-elig 70.5 0.5 +0.8
Travis d'Arnaud 24 310.4 0.1 +1.0
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 25 pre-arb 470.3 0.5 +0.4
Andrew Brown 28 pre-arb 680.2 0.3 +0.3
Zach Lutz 27 pre-arb 150.2 0.1 +0.5
Carlos Torres 30 pre-arb 330.2 0.5 -0.0
Vic Black↔ PIT 25 150.1 0.1 +0.3
Frank Francisco 33 FA-elig 80.1 6.5 -6.2
Scott Atchison 37 FA-elig 510.1 0.7 -0.4
Greg Burke 30 arb 320.1 0.6 -0.3
Omar Quintanilla 31 arb 950.1 0.3 -0.1
Aaron Laffey↔ TOR 28 40.0 0.0 +0.0
Matthew den Dekker 25 270.0
Juan Centeno 23 4-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Josh Edgin 26 pre-arb 34-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Brandon Lyon 33 FA-elig 37-0.0 0.8 -0.8
Rick Ankiel↔ HOU 33 FA-elig 20-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Pedro Feliciano 36 FA-elig 25-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Aaron Harang↔ SEA 35 FA-elig 4-0.1 1.1 -1.2
Wilfredo Tovar 21 7-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Wilmer Flores 21 27-0.1 0.1 -0.4
John Buck↔ PIT 32 FA-elig 101-0.1 5.5 -5.8
Collin McHugh↔ COL 26 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Tim Byrdak 39 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Anthony Recker 29 pre-arb 50-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Ike Davis 26 arb 103-0.2 3.1 -3.8
Sean Henn 32 4-0.2
Jeurys Familia 23 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Jordany Valdespin 25 pre-arb 66-0.3 0.5 -1.3
Collin Cowgill↔ ANA 27 pre-arb 23-0.3 0.2 -1.0
Rubén Tejada 23 arb 57-0.3 0.5 -1.4
David Aardsma 31 FA-elig 43-0.5 0.3 -1.7
Mike Baxter 28 arb 74-0.6 0.5 -2.2
Robert Carson 24 pre-arb 14-0.9 0.1 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Marlon Byrd3.3
Juan Lagares2.3
Shaun Marcum1.6
Eric Young Jr.1.3
LaTroy Hawkins1.2
Zack Wheeler1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
R.A. Dickey4.7
Scott Hairston1.6
Andres Torres1.5
Chris Young1.1
Josh Thole0.8
Mike Pelfrey0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$54.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
David Wright3013.075$11.0M$20.0M$20.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT$20.0M
Frank Francisco338.053$6.5MFREE AGENT
John Buck3210.064$5.5MFREE AGENT
Shaun Marcum318.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Aaron Harang3510.061$1.1MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins4016.054$1.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lyon3312.000$750kFREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd358.115$557kFREE AGENT
Daisuke Matsuzaka326.000$490k$1.5MFREE AGENT
Juan Lagares249.039$431k$507k$529k$2.5M$4.5M$6.5M$9.0M
Tim Byrdak3915.000$366kFREE AGENT
Rick Ankiel3314.000$333kFREE AGENT
Pedro Feliciano368.059$322kFREE AGENT
David Aardsma316.082$303kFREE AGENT
Wilmer Flores2113.003$147k$328k$514k$526k$2.2M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Sean Henn328.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Jonathon Niese263.107$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Murphy283.109$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Parnell283.132$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Atchison373.168$700kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Burke304.000$550kARB 3FREE AGENT
Omar Quintanilla314.164$327kARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Young Jr.284.000$303kARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Laffey285.101$28kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Ike Davis262.168$3.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Rice311.073$535kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Gee272.028$527kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Duda271.137$519kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rubén Tejada232.053$515kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Turner282.045$505kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hefner270.123$501kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Baxter282.015$500kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Harvey240.072$499kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirk Nieuwenhuis250.115$498kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordany Valdespin251.148$497kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jenrry Mejia230.140$495kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Edgin260.083$494kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeurys Familia230.030$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Recker290.128$491kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Torres301.007$490kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Brown280.094$303kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Satin280.145$295kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Wheeler230.000$262kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gonzalez Germen251.135$230kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Cowgill271.014$155kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Carson240.056$148kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis d'Arnaud240.000$118kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Lutz270.039$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vic Black250.000$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Centeno230.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin McHugh260.042$33kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilfredo Tovar210.000$30kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew den Dekker250.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mets 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3