NYM⇄COL

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net +$8.8M net +2.1

received +$12.8M+$12.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2013 odds 14% → 18% (+3.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Eric YoungOF·28y·B/R

+$12.8M+$12.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 2.5± 4 exp WARrealized 2.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net −$8.8M net -2.1

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2013 odds 9% → 7% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Collin McHughP·26y·R/R

−$3.9M−$3.9M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#554 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.