ANA⇄NYM

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net +$8.8M net +1.7

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $15M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2013 odds 9% → 9% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Collin CowgillOF·27y·R/L

+$9.0M+$9.0M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

#168 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net −$8.8M net -1.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2013 odds 18% → 18% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kyle Johnson

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.