RRosternomics

Mets NYM

GM: Sandy Alderson

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.75× league · TAB +0.1
+0.1TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+0.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
30%dead money %12th/30
0.488win %16th/30
30.8roster fWAR18th/30
+3surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$85Mpayroll $M21st/30

Roster

CFJuan Lagares 112GChris Young 27GMatthew den Dekker 18G
LFEric Young Jr. 73GMatthew den Dekker 28GEric Campbell 20G
RFCurtis Granderson 142GBobby Abreu 26GKirk Nieuwenhuis 6G
SSRubén Tejada 114GWilmer Flores 51GOmar Quintanilla 11G
2BDaniel Murphy 126GWilmer Flores 19GDilson Herrera 17G
3BDavid Wright 133GEric Campbell 19GDaniel Murphy 16G
1BLucas Duda 146GEric Campbell 18GJosh Satin 8G
STARTERSJacob deGrom 3.9WARJonathon Niese 2.4WARZack Wheeler 2.2WARBartolo Colon 2.2WARJenrry Mejia 0.3WAR
CTravis d'Arnaud 105GAnthony Recker 52GTaylor Teagarden 9G
DHBobby Abreu 3GLucas Duda 3GAndrew Brown 2G
BULLPEN Jeurys Familia 5svCarlos Torres 12hVic Black 12hScott Rice 7hJosh Edgin 5hDana Eveland 2hBuddy Carlyle 2hGonzalez Germen 1h
CTravis d'Arnaud 105 · Anthony Recker 52 · Taylor Teagarden 9
1BLucas Duda 146 · Eric Campbell 18 · Josh Satin 8
2BDaniel Murphy 126 · Wilmer Flores 19 · Dilson Herrera 17
3BDavid Wright 133 · Eric Campbell 19 · Daniel Murphy 16
SSRubén Tejada 114 · Wilmer Flores 51 · Omar Quintanilla 11
LFEric Young Jr. 73 · Matthew den Dekker 28 · Eric Campbell 20
CFJuan Lagares 112 · Chris Young 27 · Matthew den Dekker 18
RFCurtis Granderson 142 · Bobby Abreu 26 · Kirk Nieuwenhuis 6
DHBobby Abreu 3 · Lucas Duda 3 · Andrew Brown 2
SPJacob deGrom 3.9 · Jonathon Niese 2.4 · Zack Wheeler 2.2 · Bartolo Colon 2.2 · Jenrry Mejia 0.3
BP Jeurys Familia 5 · Carlos Torres 12 · Vic Black 12 · Scott Rice 7 · Josh Edgin 5 · Dana Eveland 2 · Buddy Carlyle 2 · Gonzalez Germen 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jacob deGrom 26 233.9 0.4 +11.1
Lucas Duda 28 arb 1533.1 1.6 +7.5
Travis d'Arnaud 25 pre-arb 1083.1 0.5 +8.7
Juan Lagares 25 pre-arb 1162.9 0.5 +7.9
Daniel Murphy 29 FA-elig 1432.5 5.7 +1.7
Jonathon Niese 27 FA-elig 312.4 5.0 +2.1
Zack Wheeler 24 pre-arb 342.2 0.5 +5.9
Bartolo Colon 41 FA-elig 312.2 9.0 -2.7
David Wright 31 FA-elig 1341.6 20.0 -15.2
Rubén Tejada 24 arb 1191.5 1.1 +3.2
Curtis Granderson 33 FA-elig 1551.2 13.0 -9.5
Wilmer Flores 22 pre-arb 781.2 0.3 +3.0
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 26 pre-arb 611.1 0.2 +3.0
Matthew den Dekker 26 531.0
Jeurys Familia 24 pre-arb 761.0 0.5 +2.4
Eric Young Jr. 29 arb 1000.8 1.9 +0.5
Buddy Carlyle 36 arb 270.4 0.2 +1.0
Ike Davis↔ PIT 27 arb 120.4 0.3 +0.9
Eric Campbell 27 850.4 0.4 +0.8
Josh Edgin 27 pre-arb 470.4 0.4 +0.8
Daisuke Matsuzaka 33 FA-elig 340.3 1.5 -0.5
Jenrry Mejia 24 arb 630.3 0.5 +0.5
Dana Eveland 30 arb 300.2 0.3 +0.3
Dilson Herrera 20 180.2 0.1 +0.4
Dillon Gee 28 arb 220.1 3.6 -3.2
Vic Black 26 pre-arb 410.1 0.5 -0.2
Carlos Torres 31 arb 730.1 0.6 -0.4
Erik Goeddel 25 pre-arb 60.0 0.1 +0.1
Bobby Parnell 29 FA-elig 1-0.0 3.7 -3.7
Chris Young↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 88-0.0 5.7 -5.9
Wilfredo Tovar 22 2-0.0
Kyle Farnsworth↔ HOU 38 19-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Dario Alvarez 25 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Taylor Teagarden 30 arb 9-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Rafael Montero 23 10-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Omar Quintanilla 32 arb 15-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Jose Valverde 36 FA-elig 21-0.2 1.0 -1.6
Bobby Abreu 40 78-0.2 0.4 -1.0
Scott Rice 32 pre-arb 32-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Andrew Brown 29 arb 19-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Juan Centeno 24 10-0.3
Josh Satin 29 arb 25-0.4 0.5 -1.6
John Lannan 29 FA-elig 5-0.4 1.5 -2.6
Anthony Recker 30 arb 58-0.5 0.5 -1.9
Gonzalez Germen 26 pre-arb 25-0.5 0.5 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Jacob deGrom3.9
Bartolo Colon2.2
Curtis Granderson1.2
Buddy Carlyle0.4
Eric Campbell0.4
Dana Eveland0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Marlon Byrd3.3
Shaun Marcum1.6
LaTroy Hawkins1.2
Jeremy Hefner0.6
Justin Turner0.5
Zach Lutz0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$85.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
David Wright3113.075$20.0M$20.0M$20.0MFREE AGENT$20.0M
Curtis Granderson3314.077$13.0M$16.0M$16.0M$11.3MFREE AGENT
Bartolo Colon4115.061$9.0M$11.0M$7.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Young307.045$5.7MFREE AGENT
Daisuke Matsuzaka336.039$1.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Valverde3611.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth3814.100$543kFREE AGENT
Bobby Abreu4016.165$361kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Daniel Murphy294.109$5.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathon Niese274.107$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Parnell294.132$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Gee283.028$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Young Jr.295.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
John Lannan295.046$1.5MFREE AGENT
Omar Quintanilla324.164$800kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dana Eveland304.164$328kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ike Davis273.155$294kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Carlyle365.002$232kFREE AGENT
Taylor Teagarden304.007$210kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Lucas Duda282.137$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rubén Tejada242.171$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Torres311.114$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Rice321.073$542kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Brown291.036$538kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Wheeler240.098$512kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jenrry Mejia241.140$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Satin290.145$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Lagares250.160$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Recker301.128$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gonzalez Germen261.135$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeurys Familia241.030$503kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vic Black260.040$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis d'Arnaud250.044$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Campbell270.000$385kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob deGrom260.000$377kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Edgin271.050$372kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Flores220.055$328kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirk Nieuwenhuis261.015$208kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Montero230.000$137kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dilson Herrera200.000$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dario Alvarez250.151$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Goeddel251.126$77kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Centeno240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilfredo Tovar220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew den Dekker261.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mets 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3