RRosternomics

Mets NYM

GM: Omar Minaya

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.55× league · TAB -16.6
-16.6TAB — talent above budget30th/30
-17.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars25th/30
-4.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
43%dead money %17th/30
0.432win %24th/30
23.1roster fWAR27th/30
-83surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$142Mpayroll $M2nd/30

Roster

CFCarlos Beltrán 77GÁngel Pagán 61GJeremy Reed 12G
LFJeremy Reed 50GGary Sheffield 46GCory Sullivan 38G
RFJeff Francoeur 154GGary Sheffield 18GJeremy Reed 8G
SSAlex Cora 56GAnderson Hernandez 38GJosé Reyes 35G
2BLuis Castillo 137GAnderson Hernandez 74GAlex Cora 19G
3BDavid Wright 142GFernando Tatis 27GAndy Green 1G
1BDaniel Murphy 101GFernando Tatis 41GCarlos Delgado 25G
STARTERSJohan Santana 3.8WARMike Pelfrey 1.8WARNelson Figueroa 0.9WARJohn Maine 0.8WARBobby Parnell 0.6WAR
COmir Santos 91GBrian Schneider 57GJosh Thole 16G
DHGary Sheffield 6GCarlos Beltrán 3G
BULLPEN Francisco Rodríguez 35svPedro Feliciano 24hSean Green 14hBrian Stokes 10hJ.J. Putz 10hElmer Dessens 0hKen Takahashi 0hLance Broadway 0h
COmir Santos 91 · Brian Schneider 57 · Josh Thole 16
1BDaniel Murphy 101 · Fernando Tatis 41 · Carlos Delgado 25
2BLuis Castillo 137 · Anderson Hernandez 74 · Alex Cora 19
3BDavid Wright 142 · Fernando Tatis 27 · Andy Green 1
SSAlex Cora 56 · Anderson Hernandez 38 · José Reyes 35
LFJeremy Reed 50 · Gary Sheffield 46 · Cory Sullivan 38
CFCarlos Beltrán 77 · Ángel Pagán 61 · Jeremy Reed 12
RFJeff Francoeur 154 · Gary Sheffield 18 · Jeremy Reed 8
DHGary Sheffield 6 · Carlos Beltrán 3
SPJohan Santana 3.8 · Mike Pelfrey 1.8 · Nelson Figueroa 0.9 · John Maine 0.8 · Bobby Parnell 0.6
BP Francisco Rodríguez 35 · Pedro Feliciano 24 · Sean Green 14 · Brian Stokes 10 · J.J. Putz 10 · Elmer Dessens 0 · Ken Takahashi 0 · Lance Broadway 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2009 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Johan Santana 30 FA-elig 253.8 18.9 -9.7
David Wright 26 arb 1443.2 7.8 -0.0
Carlos Beltrán 32 FA-elig 812.9 19.2 -12.4
Ángel Pagán 27 arb 882.8 0.6 +6.2
Mike Pelfrey 25 arb 311.8 2.2 +1.9
Fernando Tatis 34 FA-elig 1251.7 1.7 +2.4
Luis Castillo 33 FA-elig 1421.5 6.2 -2.8
Livan Hernandez↔ WSN 34 240.9 0.5 +1.6
Nelson Figueroa 35 160.9
Jeff Francoeur↔ ATL 25 arb 750.8 1.6 +0.3
Daniel Murphy 24 pre-arb 1550.8 0.4 +1.5
John Maine 28 arb 160.8 2.6 -0.8
Pedro Feliciano 32 FA-elig 880.7 1.6 +0.1
José Reyes 26 FA-elig 360.7 6.1 -4.5
Francisco Rodríguez 27 FA-elig 700.7 9.2 -7.5
Bobby Parnell 24 pre-arb 680.6 0.4 +1.1
Jonathon Niese 22 50.6 0.4 +1.0
Ryan Church↔ ATL 30 arb 670.5 1.7 -0.4
Carlos Delgado 37 FA-elig 260.4 12.0 -11.0
Gary Sheffield 40 FA-elig 1000.3 14.0 -13.3
Ramon Castro↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 260.3 1.2 -0.5
Cory Sullivan 29 arb 640.3 0.6 +0.0
Fernando Nieve 26 arb 80.2 0.4 +0.1
J.J. Putz 32 FA-elig 290.2 6.0 -5.6
Wilson Valdez 31 410.2
Lance Broadway↔ CHW 25 pre-arb 80.1 0.2 +0.1
Tim Redding 31 FA-elig 300.1 2.2 -1.9
Ken Takahashi 40 280.1
Billy Wagner↔ BOS 37 FA-elig 20.1 1.2 -1.1
Josh Thole 22 170.0
Darren O'Day↔ TEX 26 pre-arb 40.0 0.0 +0.0
Anderson Hernandez↔ WSN 26 arb 460.0 0.1 -0.1
Casey Fossum 31 30.0
Alex Cora 33 FA-elig 820.0 2.0 -2.0
Brian Stokes 29 arb 69-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Robinson Cancel 33 1-0.0
Andy Green 31 4-0.0
Emil Brown 34 3-0.1
Brian Schneider 32 FA-elig 59-0.1 4.9 -5.1
Marlon Anderson 35 FA-elig 4-0.1 1.1 -1.4
Sean Green 30 arb 79-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Tobi Stoner 24 4-0.1
Jon Switzer 29 4-0.2
Argenis Reyes 26 9-0.2
Angel Berroa↔ NYY 31 14-0.2
Elmer Dessens 38 28-0.2
Pat Misch↔ SFG 27 arb 22-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Fernando Martinez 20 29-0.4
Oliver Pérez 27 FA-elig 14-0.4 12.0 -13.0
Nick Evans 23 pre-arb 30-0.5 0.4 -1.6
Ramon Martinez 36 12-0.6
Jeremy Reed 28 arb 126-0.7 0.9 -2.5
Omir Santos 28 96-0.8

Key additions (new vs 2008)

PlayerfWAR
Livan Hernandez0.9
Jeff Francoeur0.8
Francisco Rodríguez0.7
Gary Sheffield0.3
Cory Sullivan0.3
Fernando Nieve0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2008)

Player2008 fWAR
Endy Chavez0.9
Joe Smith0.3
Raul Casanova0.2
Duaner Sanchez0.2
Pedro Martínez0.2
Moises Alou0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2009 payroll
$141.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2009, 2009–2015. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Carlos Beltrán3211.000$19.2M$19.4M$13.3MFREE AGENT
Johan Santana309.000$18.9M$20.1MFREE AGENT$24.0M
Gary Sheffield4021.000$14.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Delgado3716.000$12.0MFREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez277.000$12.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Rodríguez277.000$9.2M$12.2M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Luis Castillo3313.000$6.2M$6.2MFREE AGENT
José Reyes266.000$6.1M$9.4M$11.0MFREE AGENT
J.J. Putz326.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Schneider329.000$4.9MFREE AGENT
Tim Redding318.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Alex Cora3311.000$2.0M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Fernando Tatis3412.000$1.7M$850kFREE AGENT
Pedro Feliciano327.000$1.6M$2.9MFREE AGENT$322k
Billy Wagner3714.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Ramon Castro3310.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Marlon Anderson3511.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Livan Hernandez3413.000$537kFREE AGENT
Emil Brown3412.000FREE AGENT
Elmer Dessens3813.000FREE AGENT
Ramon Martinez3611.000FREE AGENT
Nelson Figueroa359.000FREE AGENT
Casey Fossum318.000FREE AGENT
Angel Berroa318.000FREE AGENT
Jon Switzer296.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
David Wright265.000$7.8MFREE AGENT
John Maine285.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Mike Pelfrey253.000$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Church305.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Jeff Francoeur254.000$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Reed285.000$925kFREE AGENT
Cory Sullivan294.000$600kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ángel Pagán273.000$575kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Green303.000$471kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Nieve263.000$414kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Stokes293.000$410kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Misch273.000$340kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anderson Hernandez264.000$150kARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Valdez315.000FREE AGENT
Andy Green315.000FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2009201020112012201320142015
Nick Evans231.000$403kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Murphy241.000$401kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathon Niese221.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Parnell241.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance Broadway252.000$201kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darren O'Day261.000$24kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robinson Cancel33
Omir Santos28
Argenis Reyes26
Josh Thole220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Martinez200.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tobi Stoner24
Ken Takahashi40

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Mets 2009; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3