NYM⇄ATL

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net −$8.8M net +0.2

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $23M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 2.0 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2009 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff FrancoeurOF·25y·R/R

+$9.8M+$9.8M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 2.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.68/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL Frank Wren net +$8.8M net -0.2

received +$24.8M+$24.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 3.2 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2009 odds 53% → 51% (-2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan ChurchOF·30y·L/L

+$24.7M+$24.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 3.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

1.66/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.