CHW⇄NYM

CHWCHW Kenny Williams net −$2.4M net +1.0

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $18M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2009 odds 6% → 5% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ramón CastroC·33y·R/R

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 1.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.28/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.74/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net +$2.4M net -1.0

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $41M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.1 ± 5 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2009 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lance BroadwayP·25y·R/R

+$20.0M+$20.0M± $41M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 3.1± 5 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#15 overall draft pick → 0.58/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.