RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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President of baseball ops: Derek Falvey · GM: Thad Levine

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.93× league · TAB -1.3
-1.3TAB — talent above budget16th/30
-3.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-6.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag21st/30
23%dead money %8th/30
0.481win %17th/30
32.0roster fWAR17th/30
-16surplus $M (value vs cost)14th/30
$132Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFGilberto Celestino 90GByron Buxton 57GNick Gordon 38G
LFNick Gordon 62GJake Cave 45GTrevor Larnach 33G
RFMax Kepler 110GKyle Garlick 23GMatt Wallner 16G
SSCarlos Correa 132GNick Gordon 17GJermaine Palacios 14G
2BJorge Polanco 97GLuis Arraez 41GNick Gordon 36G
3BGio Urshela 136GJose Miranda 34GLuis Arraez 7G
1BJose Miranda 77GLuis Arraez 65GMiguel Sanó 19G
STARTERSSonny Gray 2.4WARJoe Ryan 2.2WARBailey Ober 1.4WARChris Paddack 0.9WARDylan Bundy 0.8WAR
CGary Sánchez 91GRyan Jeffers 59GSandy León 33G
DHLuis Arraez 38GByron Buxton 34GGary Sánchez 32G
BULLPEN★ Jorge López 23svMichael Fulmer 25hCaleb Thielbar 18hGriffin Jax 18hJhoan Duran 18hTyler Duffey 9hEmilio Pagán 7hAustin Davis 3h
CGary Sánchez 91 · Ryan Jeffers 59 · Sandy León 33
1BJose Miranda 77 · Luis Arraez 65 · Miguel Sanó 19
2BJorge Polanco 97 · Luis Arraez 41 · Nick Gordon 36
3BGio Urshela 136 · Jose Miranda 34 · Luis Arraez 7
SSCarlos Correa 132 · Nick Gordon 17 · Jermaine Palacios 14
LFNick Gordon 62 · Jake Cave 45 · Trevor Larnach 33
CFGilberto Celestino 90 · Byron Buxton 57 · Nick Gordon 38
RFMax Kepler 110 · Kyle Garlick 23 · Matt Wallner 16
DHLuis Arraez 38 · Byron Buxton 34 · Gary Sánchez 32
SPSonny Gray 2.4 · Joe Ryan 2.2 · Bailey Ober 1.4 · Chris Paddack 0.9 · Dylan Bundy 0.8
BP★ Jorge López 23 · Michael Fulmer 25 · Caleb Thielbar 18 · Griffin Jax 18 · Jhoan Duran 18 · Tyler Duffey 9 · Emilio Pagán 7 · Austin Davis 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carlos Correa 27 FA-elig 1364.6 35.1 -18.3
Byron Buxton 28 FA-elig 923.4 9.1 +3.3
Luis Arraez 25 arb 1442.7 2.1 +7.6
Gio Urshela 30 FA-elig 1442.6 6.5 +2.9
Sonny Gray 32 FA-elig 242.4 11.9 -3.0
Joe Ryan 26 pre-arb 272.2 0.7 +7.2
Jorge Polanco 28 FA-elig 1041.7 5.5 +0.8
Caleb Thielbar 35 FA-elig 671.6 1.3 +4.7
Max Kepler 29 FA-elig 1151.5 6.8 -1.1
Nick Gordon 26 pre-arb 1381.5 0.7 +4.9
Jhoan Duran 24 – 571.5 0.7 +4.9
Bailey Ober 26 pre-arb 111.4 0.7 +4.5
Jose Miranda 24 – 1251.4 0.6 +4.6
Gary Sánchez 29 FA-elig 1281.4 9.0 -3.9
Chris Paddack 26 arb 50.9 2.2 +1.2
Griffin Jax 27 pre-arb 650.9 0.7 +2.6
Jovani Morán 25 pre-arb 310.9 0.4 +2.8
Ryan Jeffers 25 pre-arb 670.8 0.7 +2.1
Trevor Larnach 25 pre-arb 510.8 0.7 +2.1
Dylan Bundy 29 FA-elig 290.8 4.0 -1.2
Chris Archer 33 FA-elig 250.5 2.8 -0.8
Royce Lewis 23 – 120.5 0.5 +1.2
Trevor Megill 28 pre-arb 400.4 0.1 +1.5
Cody Stashak 28 pre-arb 110.4 0.7 +0.6
Jake Cave 29 – 540.3 0.3 +1.0
Aaron Sanchez↔ WSN 29 FA-elig 80.3 0.1 +1.1
Gilberto Celestino 23 pre-arb 1220.3 0.7 +0.4
Louis Varland 24 – 50.2 – –
Kyle Garlick 30 pre-arb 660.1 0.7 -0.2
Jhon Romero 27 pre-arb 40.1 0.7 -0.2
Josh Winder 25 – 150.1 0.4 +0.0
Matt Wallner 24 – 180.1 0.1 +0.2
Juan Minaya 31 FA-elig 60.1 0.1 +0.2
Mark Contreras 27 – 280.0 0.2 -0.1
Danny Coulombe 32 FA-elig 100.0 0.7 -0.6
Ronny Henriquez 22 – 30.0 0.1 +0.0
Jorge Alcala 26 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.7 -0.7
José Godoy↔ PIT 27 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Simeon Woods Richardson 21 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Austin Davis↔ BOS 29 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Michael Fulmer↔ DET 29 FA-elig 26-0.0 1.9 -2.1
Jorge López↔ BAL 29 FA-elig 23-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Chi Chi González↔ MIL 30 FA-elig 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Emilio Pagán 31 arb 59-0.1 2.3 -2.5
Devin Smeltzer 26 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Cole Sands 24 – 11-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Tyler Mahle↔ CIN 27 arb 4-0.1 0.9 -1.3
Ian Hamilton 27 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Billy Hamilton↔ MIA 31 FA-elig 17-0.1 0.3 -0.8
Tyler Thornburg↔ ATL 33 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Caleb Hamilton 27 – 22-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Sandy León↔ CLE 33 FA-elig 25-0.3 0.3 -1.2
Yennier Cano↔ BAL 28 – 10-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Tyler Duffey 31 FA-elig 40-0.4 3.8 -5.4
Jharel Cotton↔ SFG 30 FA-elig 25-0.5 0.6 -2.2
Dereck Rodríguez 30 pre-arb 2-0.5 0.0 -1.7
Alex Kirilloff 24 pre-arb 45-0.5 0.6 -2.4
Tim Beckham 32 – 12-0.5 0.2 -2.0
Joe Smith 38 FA-elig 34-0.8 2.5 -5.6
Jermaine Palacios 25 – 30-0.8 0.2 -3.2
Miguel Sanó 29 FA-elig 20-0.9 9.2 -12.6

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Carlos Correa4.6
Gio Urshela2.6
Sonny Gray2.4
Jhoan Duran1.5
Jose Miranda1.4
Gary Sánchez1.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Josh Donaldson3.4
José Berríos2.3
Mitch Garver2.1
Nelson Cruz1.8
Michael Pineda1.3
Andrelton Simmons0.9

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$132.4M
2023 guaranteed
$15.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Carlos Correa276.119$35.1MFREE AGENT
Sonny Gray328.061$11.9MFREE AGENT
Miguel Sanó296.066$9.2MFREE AGENT
Byron Buxton285.160$9.1M$15.1M$15.1M$16.1M$15.1M$15.1M$15.1M
Gio Urshela307.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Dylan Bundy296.026$4.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler Duffey317.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Chris Archer338.156$2.8MFREE AGENT
Joe Smith3815.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton318.028$322kFREE AGENT
Sandy León337.138$255kFREE AGENT
Tim Beckham326.101$154kFREE AGENT
Tyler Thornburg336.115$88kFREE AGENT
Chi Chi González307.000$30kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Gary Sánchez295.086$9.0MFREE AGENT
Max Kepler295.152$6.8MFREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco285.024$5.5MFREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán314.091$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Paddack263.000$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Fulmer295.157$1.9MFREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar353.131$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Mahle274.018$904kARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Coulombe323.008$700kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jharel Cotton303.052$583kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López293.102$515kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cave293.072$281kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Sanchez295.069$70kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (34)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Luis Arraez252.121$2.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Stashak282.064$720kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala262.014$718kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Jeffers251.089$713kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Gordon260.136$707kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Ober260.124$706kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ryan260.033$702kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhon Romero270.011$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhoan Duran240.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gilberto Celestino230.057$687kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Griffin Jax270.091$681kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Larnach250.101$677kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Garlick301.163$669kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Miranda240.000$596kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Kirilloff240.165$591kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Royce Lewis230.000$542kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Winder250.000$427kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jovani Morán250.023$381kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Hamilton270.000$235kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Contreras27–$212k
Cole Sands240.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jermaine Palacios25–$158k
Devin Smeltzer262.029$146kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yennier Cano280.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Megill280.111$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Minaya312.140$100kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wallner240.000$73kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Henriquez220.000$54kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Godoy270.030$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Davis292.105$22kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dereck Rodríguez301.102$12kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Hamilton270.114$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Simeon Woods Richardson210.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Louis Varland240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.