ANA⇄MIN

ANAANA Perry Minasian net −$6.4M net +0.5

received +$7.2M+$5.6M ± $12M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 2.3 ± 2 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2023 odds 3% → 3% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gio Urshela3B·31y·R/R

+$7.3M+$5.8M± $12M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 2.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

1.56/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$6.4M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2023 odds 65% → 63% (-2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alejandro HidalgoP·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.