CLE⇄MIN

CLECLE Chris Antonetti net +$1.6M net +0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2022 odds 44% → 46% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ian HamiltonP·27y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#326 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.14/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Derek Falvey net −$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $8M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2022 odds 11% → 10% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sandy LeónC·33y·B/R

−$0.2M−$0.2M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.5/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

-0.18/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.