RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

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President of baseball ops: Derek Falvey · GM: Thad Levine

Overview

REBUILD → steady
cheap & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.94× league · TAB -4.6
-4.6TAB — talent above budget21st/30
-8.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)23rd/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-6.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
19%dead money %5th/30
0.451win %23rd/30
28.9roster fWAR17th/30
-25surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$119Mpayroll $M17th/30

Roster

CFByron Buxton 60GNick Gordon 34GJake Cave 29G
LFTrevor Larnach 60GBrent Rooker 38GJake Cave 37G
RFMax Kepler 97GAlex Kirilloff 27GTrevor Larnach 20G
SSAndrelton Simmons 131GJorge Polanco 39GNick Gordon 14G
2BJorge Polanco 120GLuis Arraez 48GNick Gordon 17G
3BJosh Donaldson 92GLuis Arraez 55GWillians Astudillo 29G
1BMiguel Sanó 118GAlex Kirilloff 29GWillians Astudillo 27G
STARTERSKenta Maeda 1.6WARMichael Pineda 1.3WARBailey Ober 0.9WARJoe Ryan 0.5WARJohn Gant 0.4WAR
CRyan Jeffers 84GMitch Garver 59GBen Rortvedt 39G
DHJosh Donaldson 34GMiguel Sanó 11GBrent Rooker 10G
BULLPEN★ Alex Colomé 17svTyler Duffey 22hCaleb Thielbar 12hJorge Alcala 11hTaylor Rogers 8hJuan Minaya 7hDanny Coulombe 2hRalph Garza Jr. 2h
CRyan Jeffers 84 · Mitch Garver 59 · Ben Rortvedt 39
1BMiguel Sanó 118 · Alex Kirilloff 29 · Willians Astudillo 27
2BJorge Polanco 120 · Luis Arraez 48 · Nick Gordon 17
3BJosh Donaldson 92 · Luis Arraez 55 · Willians Astudillo 29
SSAndrelton Simmons 131 · Jorge Polanco 39 · Nick Gordon 14
LFTrevor Larnach 60 · Brent Rooker 38 · Jake Cave 37
CFByron Buxton 60 · Nick Gordon 34 · Jake Cave 29
RFMax Kepler 97 · Alex Kirilloff 27 · Trevor Larnach 20
DHJosh Donaldson 34 · Miguel Sanó 11 · Brent Rooker 10
SPKenta Maeda 1.6 · Michael Pineda 1.3 · Bailey Ober 0.9 · Joe Ryan 0.5 · John Gant 0.4
BP★ Alex Colomé 17 · Tyler Duffey 22 · Caleb Thielbar 12 · Jorge Alcala 11 · Taylor Rogers 8 · Juan Minaya 7 · Danny Coulombe 2 · Ralph Garza Jr. 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Byron Buxton 27 FA-elig 614.1 5.1 +8.1
Jorge Polanco 27 FA-elig 1524.0 4.3 +8.7
Josh Donaldson 35 FA-elig 1353.4 21.8 -10.8
José Berríos↔ TOR 27 arb 202.3 3.8 +3.6
Max Kepler 28 FA-elig 1212.2 6.5 +0.7
Mitch Garver 30 arb 682.1 1.9 +4.9
Nelson Cruz↔ TBR 40 FA-elig 851.8 7.9 -1.9
Kenta Maeda 33 arb 231.6 3.1 +2.1
Luis Arraez 24 pre-arb 1211.6 0.6 +4.5
Taylor Rogers 30 arb 401.5 6.0 -1.0
Michael Pineda 32 FA-elig 221.3 10.0 -5.8
Ryan Jeffers 24 pre-arb 851.2 0.5 +3.5
Andrelton Simmons 31 FA-elig 1310.9 10.5 -7.4
Bailey Ober 25 – 200.9 0.4 +2.7
Miguel Sanó 28 FA-elig 1350.9 11.0 -8.1
Caleb Thielbar 34 FA-elig 590.8 0.7 +2.0
Tyler Duffey 30 FA-elig 640.7 2.2 +0.1
Joe Ryan 25 – 50.5 0.1 +1.7
Rob Refsnyder 30 pre-arb 510.4 0.4 +0.9
John Gant↔ STL 28 arb 140.4 0.8 +0.5
Kyle Garlick 29 pre-arb 360.4 0.6 +0.6
Alex Kirilloff 23 – 590.3 0.5 +0.5
Ben Rortvedt 23 – 390.3 0.3 +0.6
Danny Coulombe 31 pre-arb 290.3 0.3 +0.5
Nick Gordon 25 – 730.3 0.4 +0.4
Jorge Alcala 25 pre-arb 590.2 0.6 +0.2
Cody Stashak 27 pre-arb 150.2 0.1 +0.6
Juan Minaya 30 pre-arb 290.2 0.3 +0.4
Trevor Larnach 24 – 790.2 0.3 +0.3
Charlie Barnes 25 – 90.1 0.2 +0.3
Nick Vincent 34 FA-elig 70.1 0.1 +0.4
Alex Colomé 32 FA-elig 670.1 5.0 -4.7
Jovani Morán 24 – 50.1 0.1 +0.2
JT Riddle 29 arb 40.1 0.1 +0.1
Devin Smeltzer 25 pre-arb 10.0 0.5 -0.4
Shaun Anderson↔ BAL 26 – 40.0 0.0 +0.0
Lewis Thorpe 25 pre-arb 50.0 0.2 -0.1
Tzu-Wei Lin 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.0
J.A. Happ↔ STL 38 FA-elig 19-0.0 5.1 -5.1
Derek Law 30 pre-arb 9-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Travis Blankenhorn↔ NYM 24 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Ralph Garza Jr.↔ HOU 27 – 18-0.1 – –
Ian Gibaut 27 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Luke Farrell 30 pre-arb 20-0.1 0.4 -0.9
Brent Rooker 26 pre-arb 58-0.3 0.3 -1.2
Brandon Waddell↔ BAL 27 – 4-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Randy Dobnak 26 pre-arb 14-0.3 0.7 -1.6
Kyle Barraclough 31 arb 10-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Hansel Robles↔ BOS 30 FA-elig 45-0.3 1.2 -2.3
Edgar García↔ CIN 24 pre-arb 6-0.4 0.0 -1.2
Beau Burrows↔ DET 24 pre-arb 5-0.5 0.0 -1.7
Jake Cave 28 pre-arb 76-0.5 0.6 -2.3
Willians Astudillo 29 pre-arb 73-0.6 0.5 -2.3
Andrew Albers 35 FA-elig 5-0.6 0.1 -2.2
Gilberto Celestino 22 – 23-0.6 0.2 -2.3
Matt Shoemaker 34 FA-elig 16-0.8 2.0 -4.5
Griffin Jax 26 – 18-0.8 0.3 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Andrelton Simmons0.9
Bailey Ober0.9
Joe Ryan0.5
Rob Refsnyder0.4
John Gant0.4
Kyle Garlick0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Eddie Rosario0.8
Tyler Clippard0.8
Rich Hill0.7
Matt Wisler0.6
Trevor May0.4
Marwin Gonzalez0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$118.8M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Josh Donaldson358.158$21.8MFREE AGENT
Andrelton Simmons318.122$10.5MFREE AGENT
Michael Pineda328.165$10.0MFREE AGENT
Nelson Cruz4013.082$7.9MFREE AGENT
J.A. Happ3812.047$5.1MFREE AGENT
Alex Colomé326.118$5.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Shoemaker346.166$2.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Vincent347.033$74kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Miguel Sanó285.066$11.0MFREE AGENT
Max Kepler284.152$6.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Rogers304.145$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Byron Buxton274.160$5.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Polanco274.024$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
José Berríos274.044$3.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kenta Maeda335.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Tyler Duffey304.074$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch Garver303.045$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hansel Robles305.119$1.2MFREE AGENT
John Gant284.004$754kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Gordon254.097$405kARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Riddle293.118$100kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Barraclough314.020$89kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Randy Dobnak261.036$700kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Thielbar342.131$650kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Arraez241.121$611kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cave282.072$598kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Alcala251.005$576kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Garlick290.163$570kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Kirilloff230.000$503kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Jeffers240.108$501kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Smeltzer251.028$482kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willians Astudillo291.158$475kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Refsnyder302.091$432kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Farrell301.137$432kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Ober250.000$371kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Larnach240.000$313kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Coulombe312.079$307kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Rortvedt230.000$304kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Rooker260.067$301kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Griffin Jax260.000$279kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Minaya302.050$261kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Derek Law302.126$236kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gilberto Celestino222.057$166kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lewis Thorpe250.137$153kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Barnes250.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Stashak271.070$121kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Albers350.160$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Ryan250.000$98kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jovani Morán240.000$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Waddell270.067$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Beau Burrows240.061$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Gibaut270.138$34kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar García240.145$30kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shaun Anderson261.091$25kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tzu-Wei Lin272.041$18kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Blankenhorn240.008$5kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ralph Garza Jr.27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.